新疆天山关键地区冰川变化模拟预测

Glaciers in central Asia, important water resource are highly sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation. With about 24000×108 m3 water equivalent, the glaciers in Xinjiang Uyger Autonomous Region in northwestern China possess the biggest ice volume in China, which plays an extremely important role in both water resource and stabilization of river runoff in this vast arid and semi-arid region.During the past several decades, because of climate warming, the most glaciers in Xinjiang are in a state of accelerating shrinkage, and the impact of the glacier recession on water resource has drawn a wide attention. The aims of this project are to reveal the machanism of glacier retreating, as well as to simulate and project the response of the glacier to climate change in Xinjiang. The responses of glaciers to climate change are extremely complex including two processes. It first appears as change of mass balance, which is immediate and direct response, and secondly the dynamical adjustment of glaciers to their environment is regarded as indirect and lagged response. Therefore, the long term future of glaciers predicting should consider not only the future climatic conditions and their impacts on mass balance of glaciers, but also the dynamic reponse of glaciers. In previous researches several time-extroplated or statistical approaches have been using to estimate future changes of glaciers in China. However, the projection made by those methods over long periods can become misleading because they do not account for the dynamical adjustment of glaciers to their environment. In this project, by integrating all responding physical processes, a deterministic dynamic model coupled with mass balance models will be introduced. It should provide more accurate results. To obtain multiple parameters of the glacier models, it is proposed to achieve from a reference glacier monitoring network throughout Tian Shan, as well as remote sensing techniques.Operated by Tianshan Glaciological Station, the glaciological observation in this network began in 1959 and includes alpine meteorological and hydrological parameters, glacier topograpy, glacier massbalance, glacier thickness, and glacier surface velocity, etc. They are crucial for glacier modeling study.Four reference glaciers are selected from this network representing the the glaciers located in key areas in Tianshan.

新疆的冰川储量约为2.4万亿方水当量，居全国之首，新疆冰川融水径流量占地表径流量的25-30%，在水资源构成和稳定河川径流方面起着至关重要的作用。气候变化引发新疆天山冰川的加速消融退缩，严重影响水资源和水循环，威胁到社会稳定和生态的安全，已成为国内外广泛关注的焦点。本项目拟针对新疆天山阿克苏河上游、天山北麓、东疆吐-哈盆地几个关键地区的四条参照冰川，以长期观测为基础，深入开展物理机制和模型模拟预测研究，定量揭示参照冰川及其径流对气候变化的响应过程，并依照参照冰川-同区域冰川尺度转换方案，分析阐述新疆不同地区冰川及其融水未来变化时空格局，为新疆水资源管理和高效利用规划提供科学依据。冰川对气候变化的响应过程十分复杂，冰川变化模拟预测是冰川学界最大难点之一，过去的研究多局限于经验统计方法和定性分析，本项目拟使用的冰川动力学模式方法，属本领域研究的国际前缘和热点，学科交叉性强，有很强创新性。

新疆的冰川储量约为 2.4 万亿方水当量，居全国之首，新疆冰川融水径流量占地表径流量的 25-30%，在水资源构成和稳定河川径流方面起着至关重要的作用。气候变化引发新疆天山冰川的加速消融退缩，严重影响水资源和水循环，威胁到社会稳定和生态的安全，已成为国内外广泛关注的焦点。本项目针对新疆天山阿克苏河上游、天山北麓、东疆吐—哈盆地几个关键地区的四条参照冰川，以长期观测为基础，深入开展了物理机制和模型模拟预测研究，定量揭示了参照冰川及其径流对气候变化的响应过程，并依照参照冰川—同区域冰川尺度转换方案，分析阐述了新疆不同地区冰川及其融水未来变化时空格局，为新疆水资源管理和高效利用规划提供了科学依据。冰川对气候变化的响应过程十分复杂，冰川变化模拟预测是冰川学界最大难点之一，过去的研究多局限于经验统计方法和定性分析，使用的冰川动力学模式方法，属本领域研究的国际前缘和热点，学科交叉性强，有很强创新性。本项研究在此基金的支持下，历时四年，取得了预期的研究成果。期间发表27篇学术论文,其中SCI论文14篇；2015年和2017年分别获新疆维吾尔自治区科技进步一等奖和甘肃省高等学校科研技术二等奖；给吉木乃县水利局提供了1份有关阿勒泰地区冰川水资源变化方面的咨询报告；培养博士生和硕士研究生20名；定量解决了新疆冰川变化与水资源核心问题，为新疆经济跨越式发展战略规划的制定，提供了水资源方面的科学依据，形成了一个擅长野外观测、拼搏在国际研究前缘的青年团队。参加各种国内外学术讨论会三十余次。