考虑人类扰动的旱灾危机诊断与应对机制研究

Drought, a natural disaster with complex formation process, is affected by many factors, including meteorological, hydrological, underlying surface condition and human activities. Since dynamics process and human activities driving mechanism for drought evolution is paid no attention in the previous studies on drought management, people are difficult to understand drought evolution process and its potential impacts very clearly. It leads to many research achievements not well in serving the drought action, and then limits their roles in the regional disaster prevention and mitigation. In this project, the middle and lower reaches of Wei River area is takes as the study area because of its typicality. In this area, its spatio-temporal drought analysis is firstly done based on the Meteorological, hydrological, underlying surface data and historical drought event in the study area. By this work these driving factors to drought event is put forward and their operating mechanisms are got under different human activities. Next, a dualistic-water-cycle hydrological process simulation model is established based on the mechanisms. Through this model, drought evolution process is got better acquainted and the relations between drought parameters and driving factors can be obtain quantitatively by historical drought event repeat and scenario analysis. By analyzing the relations, the significance of these factors are determined, and the key indices may be selected in order to establish a drought assessment index and crisis diagnosis index. Finally in according to the full-process management pattern of drought disaster presented in the project, a water resources decision support system is developed by integrating different modules on information collection, drought monitoring, crisis forecast and drought decision. The system may help the research achieving the joint between theory and practice. With the project, it will provide scientific basis for exploring the drought formation mechanism in Wei River area and carrying out the planning and project constructions of drought resistance.

干旱事件影响因素众多，致灾过程复杂，以往研究中缺乏对干旱发展动力学过程以及人类活动驱动机制的考虑，难以全面获知干旱演进过程及潜在影响，致使研究成果与抗旱操作间的铰接不紧密，极大限制了其在区域防灾减灾中的作用。本项目以渭河中下游地区为研究区域，依据气象水文、下垫面、人类活动以及历史旱情资料，分析干旱时空演变规律，甄别内在驱动机制，建立基于二元水循环的水文过程模拟模型，实现干旱发展过程的动力学解析；通过历史事件重演和多情景分析等方法，定量研究了驱动因子与干旱特征之间的响应关系，识别并构建旱情评估与危机诊断指标体系，实现人类活动致灾与抗灾特征的综合考虑；结合干旱灾害的全过程管理机制，整合信息采集、旱情监测、、危机预警、应对决策等系统模块，开发面向干旱的水资源决策支持系统，实现机理性研究到实践应用的有机融合。研究成果可为揭示渭河流域干旱形成机理、实施抗旱规划与工程体系建设提供科学依据。

干旱事件影响因素众多，致灾过程复杂，以往研究中缺乏对干旱发展动力学过程以及人类活动驱动机制的考虑，难以全面获知干旱演进过程及潜在影响，致使研究成果与抗旱操作间的铰接不紧密，极大限制了其在区域防灾减灾中的作用。本项目以渭河中下游的泾河流域为研究区域，依据气象水文、下垫面、人类活动以及历史旱情资料，分析了干旱时空演变规律，甄别了其内在驱动机制，建立了二元水文过程模拟模型，实现了干旱发展过程的动力学解析；通过历史过程重演和多情景分析等方法，定量研究了驱动因子与干旱发生发展过程之间的响应关系，识别并构建了旱情评估与危机诊断指标体系，实现了人类活动致灾与抗灾特征的综合考虑；结合干旱灾害的全过程管理机制，整合信息采集、旱情监测、危机预警、应对决策等辅助模块，建立了面向旱灾危机预警的水资源决策支持体系，实现了机理性研究到实践应用的有机融合。研究成果为揭示渭河中下游流域干旱形成机理、实施抗旱规划与工程体系建设提供科学依据。