气候变暖对核桃黑斑蚜的影响及种群趋势预测

Climate change is an important environmental problem which has caused great concern around the world. Chromaphis juglandicolawa is one of the major walnut pest and outbreaks frequently in recent years. It has caused huge economic losses and posed a serious threat to walnut production and industrial development of characteristic wood fruit in xinjiang. The walnut black aphid population dynamics during June and July is consistent of temperature fluctuating in the field. We speculate that the temperature, especially the extreme temperature, is likely to be the key influence factor of walnut aphid population dynamics. Climate warming is especially evident in the arid zone. But the temperature tolerance of walnut black aphid is unclear. To explore the thermo-resistant of C. juglandicolawa, detailed experiments were conducted in the laboratory to compare the effect of constant temperatures and fluctuating temperatures on development, survival and reproduction of C. juglandicolawa. Effects of frequency and magnitude of extreme temperature and Night warming on C. juglandicolawa also need be assessed. The research provide basic information for accounting for the outbreak and long-term forecasting under global warming.

全球气候变暖对昆虫的影响已成为国内外备受关注的问题。核桃黑斑蚜连续暴发成灾，给农民造成了巨大的经济损失，制约了新疆特色林果产业可持续发展。前期课题组调查发现6-7月核桃黑斑蚜种群数量动态与田间温度波动相吻合，我们推测温度是核桃黑斑蚜种群动态的关键影响因子。气候变暖在新疆干旱区表现尤为明显，以平均温度升高、极端高温强度和频率增加以及夜间升温为特征的气候变暖对核桃黑斑蚜的影响尚不清楚。项目拟通过室内实验明确恒温与变温对核桃黑斑蚜的影响差异；研究极端高温频率和强度增加以及夜间升温对核桃黑斑蚜发育、存活、繁殖和寿命的影响，明确昼夜不对称温度变化的生物学效应；结合田间核桃黑斑蚜种群动态及气象数据，建立核桃黑斑蚜种群动态及趋势预测模型，为解决当前核桃黑斑蚜暴发成灾提供科学依据，同时对开展全球气候变暖背景下核桃黑斑蚜种群长期趋势预测具有重要价值。

近年来，以温度升高为主要特征的气候变暖对昆虫的影响越来越受国内外的关注。蚜虫作为世界性农业害虫，其发育起点低，世代周期短，是气候变暖的重要指种。核桃黑斑蚜连续暴发成灾，给农民造成了巨大的经济损失，制约了新疆特色林果产业可持续发展。前期课题组调查发现6-7月核桃黑斑蚜种群数量动态与田间温度波动相吻合，我们推测温度是核桃黑斑蚜种群动态的关键影响因子。气候变暖在新疆干旱区表现尤其明显，以平均温度升高、极端高温强度和频率增加以及夜间升温为特征的气候变暖对核桃黑斑蚜的影响尚不清楚。项目通过室内实验和田间监测研究了温度变化对核桃黑斑蚜的影响。结果表明：恒温条件下，在15-35℃范围内，若蚜的发育历期随着温度的升高而缩短，在35 ℃时，若蚜不能正常发育为成蚜，25 ℃是核桃黑斑蚜种群增长的最适温度。波动性温度条件下，若蚜发育历期随高温强度的增加而显著缩短，随着高温频率的增加而显著延长；在波动温度37 ℃ / d处理下，若蚜无法发育为成蚜。随着高温强度和频率的增加，成蚜产蚜量减少，寿命缩短，内禀增长率降低。恒温与变温对核桃黑斑蚜的影响存在显著差异。日间升温与夜间升温对核桃黑斑蚜的影响存在不对称性。随着夜间温度的升高，若蚜发育历期先缩短后延长，成蚜寿命先延长后缩短，产蚜量和内禀增长率先上升后下降。结合田间核桃黑斑蚜种群动态及气象数据，建立了核桃黑斑蚜种群动态预测模型。研究结果为解决当前核桃黑斑蚜暴发成灾提供重要依据，同时对开展全球气候变化背景下核桃黑斑蚜种群长期趋势预测具有重要价值。