基于多卫星遥感和WRF-CMAQ的我国大气灰霾健康影响评估模型研究

Air pollution especially for hazepollution dominated by particulate matters and ozone happened frequentlyin China in the past several years,which affect human health seriously. However, monitoring network for particulate matters has not set up at a national scale at present.At a result, there are lots of uncertainties in the assessment for the effect of air pollution on health based on epidemiological data. The combination for air quality model and assessment of human health will reduce the uncertainties. But there are few studies about the relationship between air quality model and epidemiology caused by air pollutions. In this study, we will choose the effect of haze pollution on human health as the object. The temporal and spatial pattern of air pollutants at the whole national scale will be simulated by multiple satellites and air quality model (WRF-CMAQ). Then the population exposure dose-effect relationshipwill be established. Finally, air quality health assessment model with a spatial resolution of 24 kilometers will be developed. The results will improve the temporal and spatial pattern of the human health caused by air pollutions. Therefore, the results of this research will provide original data to the formulation of reducing air pollutions emission, early warning for the effect of haze pollution and even other policies and regulations.

近年来我国雾霾污染事件频繁发生，并对居民健康产生了重要的影响。但目前覆盖全国的PM2.5监测网络尚未搭建完成，基于流行病学数据的空气污染健康影响评估结果仍存在较大的不确定性。借助空气质量模型与健康影响评估相结合，可有效降低其不确定性，目前空气质量模型与流行病学的空气污染健康问题相结合的创新性研究尚未开展。本项目拟以灰霾污染对居民健康影响作为研究对象，应用多卫星遥感和空气质量模型WRF-CMAQ模拟我国空气污染物的时空分布规律，建立我国本土化空气污染的人口暴露剂量效应关系，开发适用于我国的中尺度（24km分辨率）空气质量健康评估模型（HAAP），以改善我国空气污染健康问题缺乏时空特征分析的现状，为制定未来大气污染物排放计划、建立灰霾污染的健康预警机制及制定相关政策法规提供数值理论基础。

近年来随着我国城市化进程加快和人口增加、能源消耗持续上升，区域性灰霾事件发生的频率迅速增加。区域灰霾对居民健康影响的正逐渐成为大气环境学和流行病学进行交叉研究的新方向。开展数值模型模拟研究可以有效降低当前空气污染健康影响评估的不确定性。本项目将应用多卫星遥感技术结合空气质量模式开展我国灰霾污染对人体健康的影响评估研究。通过WRF_SHIN/CALMET模型模拟获取卫星过境时间大气边界层高度（PBLH）进行垂直订正，并利用模型模拟的大气相对湿度进行湿度订正，项目参与人员开发了基于MODIS近实时高分辨率地面PM2.5日产品反演算法。颗粒物浓度每升高10 μg/m3,TSP、PM10和PM2.5的短期暴露将导致我国城市居民总死亡率分别增加0.28% (95%置信区间(CI): -0.02%~0.79%)、0.41% (95% CI: 0.30%~0.53%)和0.52% (95% CI: 0.42%~0.62%).本课题的计算结果显示，基于PM2.5短期暴露导致的我国居民死亡人数为75643人，而基于PM2.5长期暴露导致的我国居民死亡人数为1245210人（约125万人），与前卫生部长陈竺院士发表于柳叶刀的预估结果22万至274万相比，本研究进一步缩小了预估范围。未来的研究应应深入灰霾对居民健康急性暴露影响的时间序列研究，以明确不同PM2.5组分的健康影响效应，应深入开展与流行病学和毒理学跨多学科的交叉融合研究。