棉花雹灾脆弱性分析与风险评估研究

In order to meet the demands of vulnerability mechanism research at risk assessment for cotton hail disaster. Based on field experiments and case analysis, supported by mathematical statistical model and GIS spatial mapping technology, this study focuses on the scientific issues of vulnerability curve fitting and risk assessment for cotton disaster caused by hail. By designing different scenarios of hail intensity, a series of damage experiments for cottons hail disasters at different growth stages, such as seedling stage, bud stage, boll stage and boll opening stage, were implemented, by which to analyze the mechanism of cotton disaster caused by hail, then the vulnerability curves of cottons at different growth stages were built up. By data mining from the multi-sources hail disaster case database, hail hazard intensity index, risk assessment indicators, models and methods, were put forward, by combining with the vulnerability curves of the different growth stages of cotton disaster caused by hail, then the national cotton hail disaster risk maps at county scale were worked out. This research combines the methods of field experiments and case studies, incorporates mechanism analysis with data mining technology, to study the models of vulnerability curve fitting and risk assessment for cotton hail disasters at different growth stages. It can provide a scientific basis for hail disaster risk management in China.

针对棉花雹灾风险评估中对承灾体脆弱性机理研究不足的现状，以田间试验和案例数据挖掘为主要研究手段，应用数理统计模型、曲线拟合方法及GIS空间制图技术，研究棉花雹灾脆弱性曲线构建和风险评估等科学问题。设计不同雹灾强度情景，对处于苗期、蕾期、铃期和吐絮期的棉花进行降雹损害模拟实验，分析冰雹致灾因子对棉花脆弱性形成的影响机理，构建不同生育期棉花雹灾脆弱性曲线。挖掘多源信息集成的雹灾案例数据库，构建雹灾致灾强度指数，结合不同生育期棉花雹灾脆弱性曲线，提出棉花雹灾风险评估的指标、模型与方法，编制中国县域单元棉花雹灾风险图。项目将田间实验与案例剖析相结合，在机理分析的基础上，结合对海量案例数据的挖掘，预期获得不同生育期棉花雹灾脆弱性曲线和棉花雹灾风险评估模型，有望为雹灾风险管理提供科学依据。

针对棉花雹灾风险评估中对承灾体脆弱性机理研究不足的现状，重点研究冰雹致灾因子对棉花脆弱性形成的影响机理，棉花雹灾风险评估的指标和模型等科学问题。研究取得的重要成果有：建立了基于多源信息的中国雹灾案例数据库，计有30个指标和2万多条雹灾记录。研发了一套具有自主知识产权的棉花雹灾脆弱性研究的装备与方法，即“一种自动化雹灾模拟试验装置”和“一种人工模拟棉田降雹灾害的试验方法”。揭示了降雹对棉花损害、产量损失的影响规律，构建了苗期、蕾期、铃期和吐絮期棉花雹灾脆弱性曲线。提出了棉花雹灾风险评估的指标、模型与方法。编制了中国棉花不同雹灾损失发生概率图，和中国棉花不同年遇损失率图，揭示了中国大陆地区棉花冰雹灾害风险时空格局与演变规律。项目建成的中国雹灾案例数据库，棉花雹灾试验装置与方法为开展雹灾研究提供了坚实的数据基础和技术手段。研究揭示的棉花雹灾脆弱性形成机理，以及棉花不同生育期雹灾脆弱性曲线，对于深刻认识棉花雹灾灾情与风险具有重要的科学价值。系列中国棉花雹灾风险分布图不仅可揭示风险的时空格局，更可为实行区域差异化雹灾防御措施提供科学依据。