计及外部效应的电网级储能系统动态定价模型研究

The electric power system with renewable energy and energy storage is a complex and dynamic system with bilateral uncertainties from the supply side and demand side. The grid-level energy storage, which participates in the electric power system scheduling and stabilizes or responds the bilateral uncertainties deriving from the supply side and demand side by way of dynamic adjustment on charge-discharge strategy, plays an important role in the safe and stable operation of electric power system. Meanwhile, it can bring external effect on multiple benefit subjects of electric power system and social environment. The grid-level energy storage system equips economic characteristics of large initial investment, long payback period and poor capacity of self-financing, the industrial development of which needs incentive supportive policy, such as price..This project studies on the dynamic pricing model of grid-level energy storage system considering externality. Firstly, the robust optimization model of grid-scale energy storage capacity and charge-discharge operation strategy considering bilateral uncertainties deriving from supply side and demand side will be built, and the solving method will be proposed; secondly, based on the qualitative analysis of multiple external effects of grid-level energy storage system, the economic and environmental externality evaluation model of grid-level energy storage system will be built; finally, the dynamic pricing model of grid-level energy storage system considering uncertainty and externality will be built, and the empirical study will be also conducted. .This project shows theoretical innovation significances related to research object, perspective and method in terms of electric power optimizing operation, which also has profound guiding significance for industrial policy.

含可再生能源和储能的电力系统是一个具有供需双侧不确定性的复杂动态系统。参与系统调度、能够通过动态调整充放电策略平抑或响应供需双侧不确定性的电网级储能对电力系统安全稳定运行具有重要作用，也会对电力系统多元利益主体及社会环境产生外部效应。电网级储能系统具有初始投资大、投资回收期长、自负盈亏能力差等经济特性，其产业发展亟需价格等激励性扶持政策。.本项目对计及外部效应的电网级储能系统动态定价模型进行研究。首先，构建供需双侧不确定环境下含可再生能源电力系统中电网级储能容量配置和充放电运行策略鲁棒优化模型，并给出求解方法；其次，在定性分析电网级储能系统多重外部效应的基础上，构建该系统经济及环境外部效应量化评估模型；最后，构建考虑不确定性并计及外部效应的电网级储能系统动态定价模型，并进行实证研究。.本选题在电力系统优化运营等方面具有研究对象、视角和方法的理论创新性，同时也具有产业政策的指导意义。

电网级储能对具有供需双侧不确定性的新型电力系统安全稳定运行具有重要作用，但电化学电网级储能成本较高，经济性和投资性较差，不利于其建设发展，也不利于我国“双碳”目标的实现和新型电力系统的构建。如何根据电网级储能配置及运行优化特征，计量其经济价值和环境价值，进而构建动态定价模型，是促进我国电化学电网级储能良性发展所面临的一个重要问题。基于此，本项目主要研究了以下内容：（1）构建了新型电力系统中供需双侧不确定性预测模型；（2）构建了供需双侧不确定环境下新型电力系统中电网级储能容量配置鲁棒优化模型，并给出了模型求解方法；（3）构建了供需双侧不确定环境下新型电力系统中电网级储能运行鲁棒优化模型，并给出了模型求解方法；（4）构建了含可再生能源电力系统中储能经济及环境外部效应量化评估模型；（5）构建了考虑不确定性并计及外部效应的含可再生能源电力系统中电网级储能系统动态定价模型；（6）对电化学储能系统参与辅助服务市场机制进行了研究。研究得到的主要结论包括：（1）基于自适应噪声完备经验模态分解、样本熵、长短期记忆神经网络、核密度估计等方法构建的新型电力系统中供需双侧不确定性预测模型，具有较高的预测精度，能够得到实际需要；（2）储能会配置在电力系统中的重要传输节点和可再生能源发电接入节点，并且可再生能源的接入会提高储能最优的配置容量；（3）储能系统能够较好地实现“削峰填谷”作用，随着不确定性的增加，谷时段的充电电量和充电时段逐渐发生变化，系统运行经济成本以及环境成本均呈现递增的趋势；（4）电网级储能综合价值中主要的是减少线损价值、减少机组燃料价值和减少机组启动成本价值，其占比分别达到了41.18%、21.80%和33.22%；（5）当前锂离子电化学储能的平准化成本LCOE为0.87元/kWh，到2025年和2030年，锂离子电池储能的度电成本将下降到0.55元/kWh和0.39元/kWh，目前锂离子电池的峰谷电价差须在0.82元/kWh以上，才能保证投资成本的合理回收。