基于森林经营主体异质性的森林保险支付意愿和政策偏好研究

Forest Management has a major impact on the ecological environment, energy conservation and emission reduction. So, it has received a widespread attention to recognize the forest managers' willingness-to-pay and policy preference of forestry insurance scientificly . And it will develop the forest in the end. The existing research references about willingness-to-pay of the forestry insurance all viewed the insured body or the farmer as the research object. There was a hidden hypothesis of the homogeneity of all the insured bodies. According to the realities of operating the forestry, the bodies of operating the forestry make a big difference which may lead to the great difference in their willingness-to-pay and their policy perference. Based on the logistic framework of analysis and the realities of forestry management, the insured bodies were firstly classified into three classes in this research: enterprise of forestry cultivation, specilized households of forestry cultivation and part-time farmers. Secondly, the factors of impacting the willingness-to-pay will be theoretically analyzed on the all operating bodies respectively. During the analysis process, the methods of CVM and CE will be applied to study the differences of willingness-to-pay in heterogeneous forest mangement bodies empericially, to estimate the attribute order of willingness-to-pay of forestry insurance and their marginal WTP, and to compare the insurance policy preferences of all kinds of the foresrty managers. Therefore, the recognity of the behaviors of the bodies of operating the forestry was deepened and the theoretical support was provided in this research for the government to design the foresrty insurance system and for the insurance company to design the proper insurance business.

森林经营对生态环境和节能减排有重要影响。科学认识森林经营主体森林保险支付意愿和政策偏好，促进林业发展，广受关注。现有研究森林保险支付意愿和政策偏好的文献，都以投保主体或农户为对象，隐含投保主体同质性的假设前提。从森林经营现实看，森林经营主体具有异质性，其可能导致支付意愿和政策偏好的巨大差异。本项目从森林经营组织的现实状况与基于决策过程的保险需求理论的逻辑框架出发，根据森林经营主体异质性，将森林经营主体区分为森林培育企业、森林培育专业户、兼业农户；从理论上分别分析三类森林经营主体支付意愿的影响因素；运用CVM方法和CE方法，实证研究异质性森林经营主体支付意愿的差异，测算影响森林保险支付意愿属性顺序及各属性的边际WTP，比较各类森林经营主体的森林保险政策偏好。从而深化对森林经营主体投保行为和森林保险政策偏好的认识，为政府森林保险政策的设计和保险业务部门对森林保险业务设计提供理论支持。

结题报告摘要..1..项目的背景.从全球森林经营现实看，森林经营者既有正式的企业，也有家庭林场式的专业户，还有大量的兼业农户。这些森林经营这具有明显的异质性，那么影响异质性森林经营者的保险支付意愿因素是否相同？各重要影响属性的支付意愿和边际支付意愿（WTP）的价格是多少？科学回答这些问题是比较各类森林经营者的森林保险政策偏好和制定有效政策的基础。.2. 主要研究内容.（1）异质性森林经营主体森林保险支付意愿影响因素的差异性比较分析.基于决策过程的保险需求行为理论，研究异质性如何从机理层面影响其森林保险行为。.（2）异质性森林经营注意森林保险支付意愿影响因素的实证研究.运用Logistic模型和样本数据，选择9各一级指标23各二级指标，分别实证研究了森林培育企业、森林经营专业户、兼业农户三类森林经营主体森林保险支付意愿影响因素的研究。.（3）森林经营主体异质性与森林支付意愿及政策偏好的研究.确立4个影响森林保险支付意愿的属性变量，运用选择实验法（CE），研究了不同森林经营主体每一个属性的边际WTP及隐含WTP。.3..研究取得主要结论及其科学意义.（1）异质性的森林经营主体在其森林保险决策中各影响因素及响应水平有很大的差异。因此，社会经济政策制定应充分考虑针对主体的异质性。.（2）异质性森林经营主体其保险支付意愿也有很大的差异，兼业农户森林保险支付意愿很低，而森林经营大户和企业森林保险支付意愿则相对比较高。因此，当前森林保险采取统一保费、统一保额的政策和保险公司经营策略并不科学。.（3）研究表明，农户对于森林险边际支付意愿由高到底的排序是、保障水平、获得补贴的及时性、赔付难易程度、财政补贴水平。对于森林企业和森林经营大户的研究也存在相一致的结论。因此，森林保险政策着重于保险补贴水平政策应当调整。