基于性能退化数据的零失效可靠性验证方法

This project will discuss reliability demonstration of products with the characteristic of small samples, high reliability and long lifetime, like space application rotating parts. Based on the performance degradation data, this project researches the method of zero-failure reliability demonstration, and establishes the model for degradation process of the space application rotating parts through the analysis and modeling of the degradation process. Then the project presents several types of reliability demonstration methods, including zero-failure reliability demonstration based on performance degradation data under normal stress and accelerated stress test without prior information, zero-failure reliability demonstration based on performance degradation data under normal stress test with prior information. At last, this project verifies these proposed methods by reliability demonstration of space application rotating parts, and hopes to support reliability demonstration for products with small sample, high reliability and long lifetime in theory and technique.

本项目主要针对小子样高可靠长寿命产品，以空间活动部件为背景，研究基于性能退化数据的零失效可靠性验证方法，通过性能退化过程分析与建模，建立空间活动部件退化过程模型，在此基础上，给出不考虑验前信息的额定应力与加速应力下基于性能退化数据的零失效可靠性验证方法，考虑验前信息下基于性能退化数据的零失效可靠性验证方法，并利用这些方法对空间活动部件可靠性验证展开实例研究，从而为小子样高可靠长寿命产品的可靠性验证工作提供理论和技术支撑。

本项目主要针对小子样高可靠长寿命产品，以空间关键部件为背景，研究了三结砷化镓太阳能电池的退化建模及验证方法，精确描述了空间太阳能电池的退化过程，该方法也适用于其他空间电池的寿命预测。同时，对低轨环境下卫星热控涂层退化建模方法进行了研究，提出一种用于在低地球轨道（LEO）的卫星热控涂层的退化模拟方法，为卫星寿命预测和热设计提供了科学依据。另外，研究了时变应力下基于Wiener过程的产品剩余寿命评估方法，利用Wiener过程模型对时变应力下关键性能参数退化过程进行建模，结合自助法和贝叶斯方法更新模型参数，进而推导得到产品剩余寿命分布。最后，研究了基于多性能特征退化产品步进应力加速试验优化设计方法，给出了基于Gamma过程的多性能特征退化模型，并在此基础上得到步进加速应力下的多性能特征退化模型，进而对多性能特征退化产品的步进加速应力试验进行优化设计。项目进一步丰富了小子样高可靠长寿命产品的可靠性研究内容，具有重要的科学意义和应用前景。