基于CAS-CA建模的绿洲城市增长边界模拟及生态空间保护研究

It is necessary to solve the two important scientific problems separately, which are the dynamic simulation of urban growth boundary and the protection of the urban internal and external ecological space, in order to control the disorderly expansion of cities effectively, to coordinate the relationship between urban development and ecological space protection. In this study, the typical oasis cities Jiuquan and Jiayuguan are taken as examples to introduce the research paradigm of complex adaptive system (CAS) on the basis of the "human-earth" relationship theory. Firstly, oasis urban spatial expansion characteristics, mechanism and motivation would be analyzed quantitative through multi-period remote sensing image data deep mining. Secondly, a dynamic simulation framework of two-way urban growth boundary based on "urban influence-ecological feedback" would be constructed, then the growth boundary of the study area is simulated based on the improvement of the Minimum Cumulative Resistance model and MCE-CA model. Finally, the two-way adaptive relationship between urban expansion and ecological protection could be further explored with optimizing the urban land and ecological space (ecological fragile area and sensitive area) of Oasis city in general though ant colony intelligence algorithm. This study is contribute to the healthy and orderly development of oasis city and the protection of ecological space. It is an important way to realize the transformation of arid oasis cities and smart tightening growth.

为了有效控制城市无序蔓延，协调城市内部发展与外围生态空间保护之间的关系。急需分别解决城市增长边界的动态模拟与预测，以及城市内外部生态空间保护这两个关键科学问题。本研究以西北典型的绿洲城市酒泉市与嘉峪关市为例，在“人-地”关系理论基础上引入复杂适应系统（CAS）理论研究范式。首先，通过多期遥感影像数据深度挖掘，定量分析绿洲城市空间增长特征、机理与动因。其次，构建基于“城市影响-生态反馈”双向的城市增长边界动态模拟框架，在此基础上通过改进MCE-CA模型与最小累积阻力模型动态模拟研究区的增长边界。最后，研究引入蚁群智能算法对绿洲城市土地与生态空间（生态脆弱区与敏感区）进行整体优化，更进一步的探究城市增长与生态保护之间的双向自适应关系。本研究开展有助于城市健康有序发展和生态空间保护，是实现干旱绿洲城市转型和精明紧缩增长的重要途径。

绿洲城市是干旱地区人类活动最集中，生态环境最敏感，“人-地”关系矛盾最突出的区域。随着国家“一带一路”战略推动以及西部大开发的持续深入，资源要素的快速集聚导致城镇的快速扩张，致使土地利用类型和结构发生显著变化，城市扩张与生态空间被侵占已成为当前新型绿洲城镇化建设的一个关键科学问题。本项目围绕城市增长过程与机理、城市扩张规模预测、城市扩张与生态空间保护相协调等问题展开研究。首先，基于景观指数、趋势面分析等方法分析河西走廊地区绿洲居民点的分布特征与规律，提出“绿洲城市孕育指数”探究城镇发展对绿洲生态的胁迫和影响，深入挖掘河西走廊绿洲型居民点与区域生态空间协调发展的关系。其次，综合元胞自动机模型、马尔科夫链、随机森林等方法改进和优化城市扩张模拟模型。最后以河西走廊为例，分析区域绿洲城市扩张对耕地的占用，对城镇用地与生态用地的时空动态转换特征与规律展开探索，揭示城镇扩张对生态用地的影响过程与机制。项目提供了一套探究干旱地区城镇发展对绿洲生态影响以及城市扩张模拟的方法，研究成果应用于张掖市、酒泉市和白银市等地方空间规划中，具有方法价值和实践意义，能够发展一种适应自然规律、有效规避生态风险的绿洲城市与生态协调发展规划方法体系提供参考，有助于促进干旱区绿洲新型城镇化可持续发展和区域生态修复。