基于土地破坏主导因子的矿区土地复垦保证金测算方法及模型

It has been confirmed by international successful practice and theory research that mine land reclamation bond should be calculated according to land reclamation cost. Calculation methods of bond differs in our country, and the calculated amounts are often below reclamation cost . The amount of land reclamation cost depends on the condition of the leading factors affecting land destruction. This study intends to propose the method of reclamation cost calculation based on the leading factors affecting land destruction and construct the calculation model. The study will take Jining city in Shandong province as the study area. First, factors affecting coal mine land destruction will be determined and their action mechanism will be analyzed, using the method of theoretical analysis. Then, the leading factors will be determined, using the method of grey correlation dgree analysis. The leading factors will be classified and evaluated. And their weights will be determined. The coal mine will be assessed through the integrated condition index of the leading factors affecting land destruction. The model of the corresponding relationship between synthesis conditions of leading factors affecting land destruction and reclamation cost will be constructed through the inductive analysis of the reclamation cases in the study area. Furtherly, the calculation model of land reclamation bond will be constructed, considering the unforeseeable fees, inflation and other factors. The basic calculation unit will be divided, the scope of land destruction will be defined to calculate the reclamation bond. The research can provide theoretical support for the standardization and unification of the different calculation methods in our country. It can also improve the rationality, justice and scientificalness of mine land reclamation bond calculation.

国际上的成功实践及理论界的研究均证实应依据复垦成本测算矿区土地复垦保证金，而我国各地测算方法不一，且测算出的数额往往低于复垦成本。复垦成本的多寡取决于影响矿区土地破坏的主导因子条件如何。本研究拟提出基于土地破坏主导因子测算复垦成本进而测算保证金的方法，构建测算模型。以山东济宁市为研究区域，首先采用理论分析法确定煤矿土地破坏因子，分析其作用机理；而后采用灰色关联度分析法，从中筛选主导因子；确定各主导因子的权重并对其分级赋值，通过土地破坏主导因子综合条件指数对煤矿评定；对已实施复垦的案例归纳分析，构建土地破坏主导因子综合条件与复垦成本的对应关系模型，进而考虑不可预见费、通货膨胀等因素，构建保证金测算模型；对测算单元划分、土地损毁范围界定等关键环节设计，测算保证金。研究成果可为以复垦成本为依据规范和统一各地不同的测算方法提供理论支持；提高矿区土地复垦保证金测算的公平性、科学性、客观性和可操作性。

国际上的成功实践及理论界的研究均证实应依据复垦成本测算矿区土地复垦保证金，而我国各地的测算方法不一，且测算出的数额往往低于实际的复垦成本，严重影响了保证金制度的公平性和有效性。本研究首先对国内外的矿区复垦保证金制度及其测算方法进行了对比分析，梳理了国内现有的测算方法及其不足，提出应依据复垦成本测算保证金。复垦成本的多寡最终取决于影响矿区土地破坏形式和程度的主导因子条件如何，以兖州矿区为主要研究区，基于土地破坏主导因子测算了复垦成本以测算保证金。首先采用理论分析法和专家咨询法初步确定出影响研究区土地破坏形式和程度的14个一般因子，利用 SPSS 软件进行相关分析，降低因子间的相关性，筛选出10 个一般影响因子，采用地表下沉值作为衡量土地破坏程度的指标，分析其与 10 个因子的关联程度，最终筛选出可采煤层平均总厚、深厚比、地下水埋深、基岩厚度、宽深比、松散层厚度6个主导因子，并深入分析了其作用机理；依据灰色关联度分析的结果确定了各主导因子的权重，参考相关标准确定了各主导因子的分级标准及其级位指数，构建了主导因子综合条件指数；对已实施复垦的案例进行归纳分析，确定不同损毁程度各复垦方向单位土地破坏主导因子综合条件指数对应的复垦成本，并纳入不可预见费、通货膨胀等因素，构建了保证金测算模型，对其进行了验证；将主导因子综合条件指数相对一致的区域划分为一个测算单元，利用MSPS沉陷预计软件界定土地损毁范围，测算了东滩煤矿应提取的土地复垦保证金数额。本研究提出了基于土地破坏主导因子测算复垦成本进而测算矿区土地复垦保证金的思路和方法，并构建了测算模型，研究成果具有普适性和推广性，为以复垦成本为依据规范和统一各地不同的测算方法、提高矿区土地复垦保证金测算的公平性、科学性、客观性和可操作性提供了理论支持。项目发表论文10篇（SCI期刊检索1篇，EI期刊检索2篇）；出版专著1部；获国家授权发明专利1项；培养硕士研究生5名。