北极航线通航环境评价及海上突发事件响应机制研究

The gradual warming up of Arctic and the speeding up of the sea ice melting in the summer has brought more light to the navigation along the whole water line. Once the Arctic route was opened, it would greatly shorten the voyage between the Pacific and the Atlantic, and bring huge business interests and strategic value. However the navigation of the Arctic route is just an expectation, because of the uncertainty of the navigation environment and the lack of emergency mechanism towards the paroxysmal events at sea, and there is a lot of risk. Firstly, this project adopts models, such as interpretative structural modeling (ISM) method, language information processing (IPL) , blind number theory model (BM), to analyze the navigation environment of Arctic route, establish the evaluation system and evaluate navigation environment. Then it uses the improved delphi method and the grey incidence cluster analysis to depict the Arctic route's navigation process and the possible scope and regularity of paroxysmal events arising after the Arctic route being navigable, and use the complex networks theory and artificial fish-swarm algorithm (AFSA) to study the complex network characteristics and evolution mechanism of the emergency response to the sea paroxysmal events along the Arctic route. At last, based on Cloud mode and extension fuzzy AHP method, this project depicts the future maritime order in the Arctic region, and discusses the future strategic measures that China should take. This study, on one hand, will make scientific reference value for the navigation environment evaluation and maritime emergency management of the uncompleted navigable waters, on the other hand, it can provide scientific basis and effective policy suggestions for the Arctic route's development and utilization of China.

北极变暖和夏季冰融加速引致北极航道全线通航成为可能。北极航线一旦开通，将大大缩短太平洋和大西洋之间的航程，从而带来巨大的商业利益和战略价值。但受制于通航环境的不确定性和海上突发事件响应机制的缺乏，北极航线的商业通航还只是一个预期，并且存在很大的风险。本项研究首先采用ISM解释结构模型、语言信息处理、盲数理论模型等方法分析北极航线通航环境，并建立评价指标体系对其进行评价；然后采用改进德尔菲法及灰云聚类分析法刻画北极航线通航进程和通航后可能出现的海上突发事件的范围和规律；进而采用复杂网络理论、人工鱼群算法研究北极航线海上突发事件响应的复杂网络特征及其演化机理，以及海上突发事件响应机制；最后采用云模型等方法刻画未来北极地区的海事秩序，研究中国的未来对策。本项研究一方面可为未完全通航海域的通航环境评价和海上突发事件应急管理提供科学借鉴，另一方面可为我国北极航线开发利用提供科学依据和有效的政策建议。

气候变暖及航海技术发展推动着北极地区的开发利用。北极蕴含重要的航线价值、资源价值及战略价值，其开通将对我国“一带一路”战略，港口（特别是油港和集装箱港）及船舶运营，航运网络结构、内陆集疏运网络布局和运输资源配置等产生重要影响，本项目的研究正是沿着这一主线展开的。在北极方面的研究涉及通航环境、海上突发事件应急响应及预案、环境治理、航线经济性分析、北极合作及战略制定。在“一带一路”战略方面的研究涉及贸易合作及“南海”问题的战略制定。在港口与航运方面的研究涉及油港安全、集装箱码头运营，涉及到考虑北极通航的集装箱船、油船和散货船运输及航线网络优化。在内陆集疏运网络布局和运输资源配置方面的研究涉及内陆港网络布局、物流配送网络规划。.研究发现，北极目前可通航但风险较大，海上突发事件救助需要紧密的国际合作，而我国北极救助水平较弱，提高长远收益并选择合适投资回报系数将促进北极环境治理合作，北极应急预案有效运行需非北极国家参与。北极航运联盟有利于北极航线的运营，但面临成本及合作关系表层风险，助航及通讯中层风险，通航环境及法律深层风险。“一带一路”网络邻居节点的合作奖励及舆论压力将促进贸易合作，“南海问题”可采取政经网络重新连接、连线、赋权及生成战略。北极航线缩短了航线距离及时间，但通航期短、环境恶劣、通行及助航费高影响了其经济性。北极东北航线开展集装箱运输比苏伊士运河-马六甲海峡航线在运输距离、必要运费率及利润方面更优。油船经北极东北航线进口北海和北极圈原油的必要运费率高于中东、北非及西非航线，但油港储运作业存在风险，其中深层风险为人为因素及安全管理。提高集装箱码头运营效率有利于北极航线集装箱运输，送箱集卡、箱位分配和场桥、岸桥等的调度优化等都影响这一效率。北极通航需要科学规划内陆集疏运网络和物流配送网络，优化内陆港、物流中心布局，优化调度运输资源是提高网络运行效率的关键。