基于卫星资料同化及WRF云-辐射耦合模式的太阳能模拟和预报改进方法研究

Solar photovoltaic power is the third renewable energy next to hydropower and wind power. Because the temporal and spatial variation of cloud cover has great influence on photovoltaic power, variation of photovoltaic power is nonstationary random process. Accurate simulation of temporal and spatial variation of cloud and solar radiation is very important. It's the key scientific problem that how to decrease error of cloud initial field in mesoscale meteorological model and improve the capability of describing cloud-radiation interaction in such models and simulation of solar radiation under cloudy days. Improved method of 3D cloud field by LAPS model based on satellite and radar data assimilation will be researched and used to optimize cloud initial field in WRF model and improve simulation of cloud micro-physical parameters. Coupled method of the WRF and SES2 radiative transfer model and the seasonal and regional applicability of WRF-SES2 coupled model will be studied. This project mainly studies the mechanism of cloud-radiation interaction in WRF model and impacts of inhomogeneous distribution of sub-grid cloud, horizontal resolution of model and calculated frequency of radiation on temporal and spatial variation of solar radiation. Improved numerical simulation method of 3D cloud field and solar radiation will be provided through the research of this project. And objective numerical simulation method for fine assessment of solar energy and generated energy prediction of photovoltaic power station will be also researched. Improvement of simulation of cloud and precipitation by WRF-SES2 coupled model considering cloud-radiation inter-feedback has both important scientific significance and application values.

太阳能光伏发电已成为仅次于水电和风能的第三大可再生能源，由于光伏发电受云量时空变化的影响较大，其发电量的变化是一个非平稳的随机过程，准确模拟云和太阳辐射的时空变化至关重要。围绕如何减小中尺度气象模式的云初始场误差，提高模式对云和辐射相互作用的刻画能力，改进多云天的太阳辐射模拟这一关键科学问题，本项目拟通过研究基于卫星和雷达资料同化的LAPS三维云分析改进方法，优化WRF模式的三维云初始场，改进云微物理参数的模拟；研究WRF与辐射传输模式SES2的耦合方法及模式系统的季节和区域适用性，重点研究WRF模式中云-辐射相互作用机制以及次网格云不均匀分布、模式水平分辨率、辐射计算频率对辐射模拟的影响。本项目研究结果将为多云天的三维云场及太阳辐射模拟提供改进的数值计算方法，为太阳能资源精细评估和光伏电站的发电量预报提供客观的数值模拟方法，WRF云-辐射耦合模式亦对云和降水模拟的改进具有重要的科学意义。

围绕如何减小中尺度气象模式的云初始场误差，提高模式对云和辐射相互作用的刻画能力，改进多云天的太阳辐射模拟这一关键科学问题，本项目通过研究基于风云卫星、雷达、地基遥感GPS水汽、探空和地面观测常规气象要素等多源数据的LAPS三维云分析同化方法、基于改进版ARPS-WRF离线耦合模式系统的风云卫星、雷达资料同化方法以及基于GSI-WRF同化模式系统的NOAA-19卫星遥感微波湿度计水汽观测资料同化方法，改进了WRF模式的三维云初始场，明显提高了云天情况下云和太阳辐射的模拟；通过研究WRF与SES2模式的离线和在线耦合方法、次网格云的不均匀分布及其辐射反馈、水平分辨率、辐射计算频率对辐射时空变化模拟的影响以及WRF模式辐射参数化最优组合方案，研究了具有云-辐射互反馈的太阳辐射数值模拟方法及其季节和区域适用性，改进了多云和阴雨天的太阳辐射模拟。另外针对太阳能光伏发电量预报的业务需求和特点，研究了太阳辐射分光谱预报和动力-统计订正方法，显著改进了有云情况下光伏电站的太阳能业务预报效果。本项目研究结果为三维云场和太阳辐射的模拟和预报提供了改进的数值计算方法，通过边研究边应用为太阳能资源精细评估和光伏电站的发电量预报提供了具有实际应用价值的改进方法，亦对云和降水的改进研究和业务应用具有重要的科学意义。