中国制造业协同集聚的生态环境效应：传导机制、实证检验与调控政策研究

As an inevitable trend of the market mechanism specially playing a decisive role in resource allocation, industry agglomeration is an important way to promote regional economic development and affects eco-environment. From the perspective of industrial spatial structure, we can achieve environmental protection by optimizing industry co- agglomeration. Thus, this project intends to study the relation between manufacturing industry co-agglomeration and environmental pollution from the industrial and spatial aspects. Further it will analyzes and constructs the effect of channels and transmission mechanism models generated by manufacturing industry co-agglomeration, explore the critical condition of positive and negative effects of eco-environment created by manufacturing industry co-agglomeration. On the basis of considering industrial heterogeneity or spatial characteristics, this project will introduce the variable of manufacturing industry co-agglomeration, design industrial and space panel threshold regression model, make an empirical research on the non-linear relationship and threshold conditions of comprehensive environmental pollution levels and different environmental pollutants generated by manufacturing industry co- agglomeration, and eco-environmental effects of conduction mechanism and threshold conditions of manufacturing industry co-agglomeration. Moreover, by analyzing and comparing the developed countries’, Chinese national and its local industrial distribution and environmental protection policies and their implementation ways, this project will put forward policy regulation to optimize manufacturing industry co-agglomeration in order to achieve eco-environmental protection.

产业集聚作为市场机制在空间发挥资源配置决定作用的必然趋势，既是促进地区经济发展的重要途径，又深刻影响了生态环境变化。从产业空间结构视角来看，保护生态环境可以通过优化产业协同集聚来实现。为此，本项研究拟从产业和空间两个层面经验考察制造业协同集聚与生态环境污染之间的关联现象；进而分析和构建制造业协同集聚所产生的生态环境效应的作用渠道和传导机理模型，探寻制造业协同集聚产生生态环境正负效应的临界条件；接着，在考虑控制产业异质性或空间特性等因素的基础上，引入制造业协同集聚变量，合理设计产业和空间面板门限回归分析模型，实证制造业协同集聚所产生的生态环境污染综合水平和不同环境污染物的非线性关系和门槛临界，以及制造业协同集聚的生态环境效应传导机制及其门限条件；进而，通过分析和比较发达国家、中国国家及地方引导产业空间布局和生态环境保护相关政策及其实施方式，提出优化产业协同集聚规模实现生态环境保护的政策调控。

从产业空间结构视角来看，保护生态环境可以通过优化产业协同集聚来实现。本项研究是在对中国制造业协同集聚与生态环境污染水平进行动态测算基础上，将制度经济理论、新经济地理理论和环境经济理论交叉融合，构建了包含反映法律、环境管制政策、市场化水平的制度环境变量的理论模型，模拟分析在不同制度环境中制造业协同集聚通过地区技术创新和技术溢出所产生的生态环境改善效应；进一步地，在不同的环境管制政策条件下，制造业协同集聚与企业环境技术创新之间存在密切的联系，而环境技术创新又是改善生态环境污染的重要因素，因而，构建了进化博弈模型，模拟分析环境管制政策与制造业协同集聚影响企业环境技术创新和实现产业集聚区生态环境保护的传导机制。另一方面，基于中国制造业协同集聚与生态环境污染水平进行动态测算数据，采用面板数据分析技术，实证研究制造业协同集聚所产生的生态环境效应非线性关系，考察制造业整体协同集聚对环境污染综合水平及其不同污染物排放水平的影响。进而，采用工具变量的两阶段最小二乘法结合面板数据分析方法，实证分析制造业内行业协同集聚对集聚区企业环境技术创新影响，以验证制造业行业协同集聚实现产业集聚区生态环境改善的效应的传导机制。依据理论分析和实证研究，立足于中国深度剖析国家及地方层面决策机构影响产业空间布局的政策，进而提出在设计优化制造业协同集聚实现生态环境保护的调控政策时应当制定“因行制宜”和“因地制宜”的策略。