中国寒温带森林对气候变化的响应-反馈-预测研究

Response and feedbacks of vegetation dynamics to climate change have been focused by the scientific community. Forests are highly important for regulating climate, energy exchange, and carbon cycling from site to global scales. The cold temperate forest zone of China belongs to a part of boreal forest, which is very sensitive for climate change. The objectives of the project are (1) to reveal the response and feedback mechanism of cold temperate forest in China to climate change; (2) to clarify the sensitivity of various vegetation parameters to climate change; (3) to explore the dynamics of zonal characteristics of geography under short-, medium-, and long-term climate change scenarios. Filed works, remote sensing datasets, and models will be combined to develop a multi-scale method for obtaining parameters of forest. The vegetation feedback mechanism will be joined into the global vegetation dynamic model that can improve the accuracy for predicting the parameters of forest under various climate scenarios. The cross-validation will be conducted to invert high-precision climate response and feedback of parameters in cold temperate forest. Various quantitative analysis methods will be applied to explore spatio-temporal differences of multi-parameters and their response to regional and global climate, and feedback characteristics in cold temperate forest over the past 30 years and the next 100 years at site, local and regional scales. The results of the project are very important for scientific community which is advance understanding regional and global climate change. Meanwhile, this project can provide useful knowledges for carbon source/sink and carbon trade negotiations in cold temperate forest of China.

针对植被如何对气候变化响应和反馈的科学问题，本项目拟以中国寒温带森林为研究对象，采用地面实验、遥感反演和模型模拟相结合的研究方案，建立多尺度森林参数反演模型并进行交叉验证，反演高精度寒温带森林气候响应和反馈参数。将植被反馈机制加入到全球植被动态模型中，修正模型并预测未来气候情景下森林植被参数。采用对比分析、趋势检测、空间统计、回归分析、相关分析、时滞分析、残差分析和主成分分析等研究方法，多角度、多尺度、多参数定量化研究过去30年和未来100年寒温带森林植被参数的时空地域分异规律，及其对区域、全球气候的响应和反馈特征。项目预期揭示中国寒温带森林植被对气候变化的响应和反馈机制；明晰不同植被参数对气候变化的敏感性特征；探究未来气候变化情景下短、中、长期寒温带森林的地域分异规律。项目的研究成果对理解区域和全球气候变化具有重要科学价值和理论借鉴意义，对中国寒温带森林碳源/汇和碳贸易谈判提供科学依据。

针对植被如何对气候变化响应和反馈的科学问题，本项目以中国寒温带森林所处的北方森林为研究对象，采用地面实验、遥感反演和模型模拟相结合的研究方案，建立多尺度森林参数反演模型并进行交叉验证，反演高精度北方森林气候响应和反馈参数。将植被反馈机制加入到全球植被动态模型中，修正模型并预测未来气候情景下森林植被参数。采用对比分析、趋势检测、空间统计、回归分析、相关分析、时滞分析、残差分析和主成分分析等研究方法，多角度、多尺度、多参数定量化研究过去30年和未来100年北方森林植被参数的时空地域分异规律，及其对区域、全球气候的响应和反馈特征。项目预期揭示北方森林植被对气候变化的响应和反馈机制；明晰不同植被参数对气候变化的敏感性特征；探究未来气候变化情景下短、中、长期北方森林的地域分异规律。项目的研究成果对理解北半球中高纬度气候变化具有重要科学价值和理论借鉴意义。