外出就业对新生代农民工婚育行为的影响：机理与实证

With industrialization and urbanization quickening in China, new generation of migrant workers have already become an important part of industrial workers.The age of the new generation of migrant workers mostly is between 16-32,which is the best period of marriage and child-bearing. Marriage and child-bearing are important aspects of living area for the new generation of migrant workers, which is worthy of in-depth study. Based on pooled cross-section data by large-scale investigation, the subject analyzes the influcences of employment outside on new generation of migrant workers in the marriage and child-bearing behaviors. The main contents include:1. summarizing the new features of concept of marriage and marital behavior of the new generation of migrant workers, constructing the marriage model of the new generation of migrant workers, in order to explain the influences of employment outside and different qualities of employment on new generation of migrant workers in marriage behavior, and presenting an empirical analysis on it. 2. summarizing new features of child-bearing willingness and behavior of new generation of migrant workers, building economic model of child-bearing decision-making of the new generation of migrant workers, so as to explain the influences of employment outside and different qualities of employment on new generation of migrant workers in child-bearing behavior, and presenting an empirical analysis on it. 3.putting forward to specific management measures. The expected research findings will enrich the theories of new generation of migrant workers, and at the same time, promote stability of marriage and family in urban and rural society, and improve reproductive health of the floating population and service level of birth control.

随着我国工业化和城市化进程加快，新生代农民工已成为城市产业工人的重要组成部分。新生代农民工的年龄大多在16-32岁之间，正处于婚恋生育的最佳时期，婚姻、生育是新生代农民工生活领域一个极其重要的方面，也是值得深入研究的方面。本课题以大规模调研的混合截面样本数据为基础，分析外出就业对新生代农民工婚姻、生育行为的影响。主要内容包括：1.归纳新生代农民工婚姻观念和婚姻行为呈现的新特征，构建新生代农民工的婚姻模型，解释外出就业及不同的就业质量对新生代农民工婚姻行为的影响，并对其进行实证分析；2.归纳新生代农民工生育意愿和生育行为呈现的新特征，构建新生代农民工的生育决策经济模型，解释外出就业及不同的就业质量对新生代农民工生育行为的影响，并进行实证分析；3.提出相适应的具体管理措施。本项目研究成果预计将富新生代农民工理论，同时有利于促进城乡社会婚姻家庭稳定、提高流动人口的生殖健康和计划生育服务水平。

课题组采用839份实地调查数据和部分公开数据对新生代农民工婚姻和生育行为进行分析，具有的研究内容及其结论如下所述。.第一， 新生代农民工婚姻行为和生育行为特征分析。从择偶标准、恋爱方式、恋爱花费等方面分析其婚恋行为特征，发现其在婚恋行为上存在着一方面想要冲破传统的束缚而另一方面受实现的约束不得不屈服于传统的矛盾。从生育子女数量、初育年龄、子女出生地点的选择等方面分析其生育行为，发现新生代农民工生育行为和其父辈相比已经发生很大改变。. 第二，女性农民工婚姻匹配模式及其婚姻满意度研究。采用CFPS数据分析发现，教育同质婚和向上婚，年龄上“男比女大”，户口同类婚，“门当户对”的家庭背景匹配占主导地位；教育同类婚和向下婚、年龄上和其配偶差距过大的女性农民工会负向影响其婚姻主观满意度。. 第三，外出就业对农村女性初育年龄的影响研究。采用2012CLDS数据发现，初次生育前外出就业、初次生育前多次外出就业推迟了其初育年龄。采用Cox比例风险模型分析发现，初育前外出就业的经历、外出就业的时间和平均每次外出就业时间均对农村女性的初育年龄产生显著地负向影响。. 第四，“全面二孩”政策下农民工生育意愿及其影响因素分析。实地调查数据发现，新生代农民工二孩生育意愿较低。其年龄、现居住地和流动时间是制约二孩生育意愿的重要因素。20-25岁，收入较低，已生育男孩的男性其对子女为男孩的偏好较低。其意愿生育时间总体上呈现延后趋势，其年龄对意愿初育年龄的影响为负、对意愿生育间隔时间的影响为正。.第五，城市农民工家庭化迁移模式变迁及其幸福效应。采用CGSS数据对城市农民工家庭化迁移的总体水平及变化趋势进行分析，发现其家庭化迁移趋势进一步明朗，配偶子女随迁模式和配偶随迁模式占主导地位，其家庭化迁移模式存在年龄和地区差异。有序probit模型实证结果发现，流入地家庭规模越大、携父母随迁、携配偶随迁会提升城市农民工幸福感。