基于船舶行为分析的多桥梁水域交通流组织方法研究

In recent years, with the rapid development of the inland navigation of our country, both the quantity and tonnage of ships increase rapidly. And meanwhile, with the development of regional economy, the density of bridges across the river increases year by year, a number of bridge waterway in the inland river will be lined up, the consequent multi-bridge waterway will restrict the development of inland navigation. At present, in order to ensure the shipping safety in the bridge waterway, the management of ship traffic organization by the maritime administration in the bridge waterway is block for a single bridge, which makes the bridge become the bottleneck of inland navigation. It is urgent to adopt interaction management in multi-bridge waterway and enhance the navigation efficiency of ships. This research is aimed at the organization of ship traffic flow in the multi-bridge waterway, and starts with the analysis of ship behavior characteristic in this waterway, establishing the belief rule base of ship behavior characteristic of the multi-bridge waterway. According to the navigation environment characteristic in the multi-bridge waterway, the fairway is divided. By using of the belief rule base, the track forecast of different kinds of ships in the different sub-fairway is achieved. Combined with the assessment result of navigation safety, the model of ship route planning in the multi-bridge waterway is established, the optimization of ship route in the multi-bridge waterway is achieved, and the goal that ships can go through the multi-bridge waterway safely and efficiently is attained.

近年来我国内河航运发展迅速，船舶从数量上和吨位上迅速增长，同时，随着区域经济的发展，桥梁越建越多，也越建越密，内河上大量的"桥区水域"将由点成线，形成"多桥梁水域"，限制内河航运发展。而现阶段为保证桥区航运安全，我国海事部门对桥区船舶的交通组织仍采用单座桥梁的分块化管理方式，使得很多桥梁成为内河通航的瓶颈，迫切需要对多桥梁水域进行联动管理，提高船舶通航效率。本研究将针对多桥梁水域船舶交通流的组织问题，从船舶行为入手，分析船舶在多桥梁水域的船舶行为特征，建立多桥梁水域船舶行为置信规则库，根据多桥梁水域通航环境特征，对多桥梁水域进行子航道划分，利用船舶行为置信规则库实现不同类型船舶在不同子航道的航迹预测，结合通航安全评价结果，建立"多桥梁水域船舶航路规划模型"， 实现船舶在多桥梁水域航路优化，达到船舶安全、高效通过的目的。

随着我国区域经济的迅速发展，跨河桥梁越建越多，也越建越密，内河上大量的“桥区水域”将由点成线，形成“多桥梁水域”。而现阶段为保证桥区航运安全，我国海事部门对桥区船舶的交通组织仍采用单座桥梁的分块化管理方式，使得很多桥梁成为内河通航的瓶颈，迫切需要对多桥梁水域进行联动管理，提高船舶通航效率。本研究将针对多桥梁水域船舶交通流的组织问题，从船舶行为入手，开展的主要研究工作及取得的成果包括：1）利用AIS船舶船位信息还原船舶的航迹，并分别针对直线和转向航行的船舶行为过程进行解析；2）通过对多桥梁水域船舶航迹进行分析，得到不同类型船舶在不同类型桥梁水域的航行规律，并对船舶航迹进行实时预测和船舶CPA进行实时解算。3）研究多桥梁水域航道划分与航路优化方法，建立“多桥梁水域船舶航路规划模型”；4）利用多智能体（MAS）方法实现对多桥梁水域船舶交通流组织的仿真。本项目相关成果已经得到水上交通管理部门的应用。本项目共发表国内外权威重要期刊和会议论文8篇，其中期刊论文7篇，SCI收录期刊3篇；获授权软件著作权1项；获授权发明专利2项。协助培养博士研究生1名，硕士研究生3名。全面完成了项目计划任务要求。