产业政策的微观基础和我国产业结构转型研究：基于产品空间理论的考察

One of the biggest challenges China currently faces is how to surmount the "middle-income-trap" and achieve the income level of the developed world. It is crucial to study the following two related issues: (1) How to provide sound microfoundations for industrial policy? (2) How to determine and achieve industrial development goals? Recent advancement in product space theory has provided much new insight. The proposed research program will improve on the discovery cost model in product space theory to provide microfoundations for industrial policy. In addition, it will modify concepts including PRODY, EXPY, and product proximity to help find the optimal industrial structure and industrial policy corresponding to each Chinese region's specific conditions. In particular, we will use multiple large-scale detailed micro data sets to conduct the following tasks during the supported period: (1) to describe and summarize the patterns of China's industrial transformation since the mid-1990s, over time and across space; (2) to analyze how government policies, economic environment, and natural endowments affect the pace and patterns of industrial structural changes; (3) to examine the relationship between industrial structure and economic performance or other development indicators at the regional, sectoral, and firm level; and mostly importantly, (4) to help improve the quality and operability of industrial policy making for the new century.

如何成功跨越"中等收入陷阱"是我国当前经济研究和管理中的重要命题，而产业结构转型是进入发达国家行列的必经之路。现阶段亟待深入研究以下问题：第一，如何为产业政策的制定提供坚实的微观理论基础？第二，如何确定和实现我国各地区产业结构升级的具体行业方向？近年来的产品空间理论研究为解决上述问题提供了新思路。本课题将通过拓展该理论关于企业产品选择的外部性模型，为产业规划的制定提供微观理论基础，并通过改进其中产品技术复杂度和产品相近度等概念，来为我国各地区最优产业和最佳政策的选择提供分析工具和手段。在具体的研究中，我们将使用大规模详实微观数据进行实证分析，总结归纳我国上世纪九十年代中期至今的产业结构演变在时间和空间维度的规律，考察政策、经济环境和自然禀赋等因素如何决定产业结构的变迁，并探究产业结构的技术复杂度和产业相近度等指标与经济发展指标之间的非线性关系，从而使产业政策的制定过程更具操作性和科学性。

如何成功跨越“中等收入陷阱”是我国当前经济研究和管理中的重要命题，而产业结构转型是进入发达国家行列的必经之路。现行的产业政策研究通常缺乏坚实的微观基础。本课题围绕我国产业政策的微观基础和我国产业结构转型进行了大量的理论和实证研究。本课题分析了产业集群对企业发展的重要作用以及作用机制，发现产业集群的制度替代效应。同时本课题也对我国产业结构调整过程中出口、外资引进政策、县际竞争、创新政策等各方面的作用进行了研究。本课题的研究对理解我国产业结构转型具有重要的参考意义，同时也为我国在某些具体的方面制定产业政策提供了较坚实的微观基础。