基于实时监控的高碾压混凝土坝施工进度控制理论与方法研究

For high RCC dam construction process, the simulation modeling of high roller compacted concrete (RCC) dam construction for the construction phase and the construction schedule control based on real-time monitoring are two existing challenging and urgent key scientific problems. In this study, based on high RCC dam construction technology features, a simulation model of high RCC dam construction is established, which takes production and transportation of concrete and construction on dam surface into consideration. The Bayesian estimation method is introduced to a random simulation parameter selection process, and by comprehensively considering overall, samples and prior information, accurate prediction of random variables is achieved. By establishing dynamic schedule control model, real-time simulation and optimization of high RCC dam construction facing the whole construction progress is achieved, which ultimately leads to dynamic control of high RCC dam construction schedule based on real-time monitoring information. This study has made up for the deficiency that high RCC dam construction simulation is mainly design phase oriented currently and randomness of the construction process is difficult to accurately describe, and has solved the basic science application problems existing in the real-time schedule control of high RCC dam construction. This study not only has great theoretical significance, but also has a strong engineering application value.

针对高碾压混凝土坝建设过程中存在的具有挑战性、亟待解决的关键科学问题：面向施工阶段的高碾压混凝土坝施工过程仿真建模难题、基于实时监控的高碾压混凝土坝施工进度控制问题。本研究根据高碾压混凝土坝施工工艺特点，建立综合考虑混凝土生产运输和坝面作业的面向施工阶段的高碾压混凝土坝施工仿真模型，并将贝叶斯估计方法引入到随机仿真参数选取过程中，贝叶斯估计方法通过综合考虑总体、样本及先验信息，可实现对随机变量的精确预测。通过建立进度动态控制模型，实现面向施工全过程的高碾压混凝土坝施工实时仿真与优化，最终实现基于实时监控信息的高碾压混凝土坝施工进度动态控制。本研究弥补了目前高碾压混凝土坝施工仿真主要面向工程设计阶段以及难以准确描述施工过程随机性等不足，解决高碾压混凝土坝施工进度动态控制中存在的应用基础科学问题。本项目研究特色明显，不仅具有重要的理论意义，而且具有很强的工程应用价值。

本研究根据高碾压混凝土坝施工工艺特点，建立了综合考虑混凝土生产运输和坝面作业的面向施工阶段的高碾压混凝土坝施工仿真模型，基于实时监控技术对碾压混凝土坝实际施工信息进行实时采集并进行动态分析，利用贝叶斯更新方法不断更新施工进度仿真模型，贝叶斯估计方法通过综合考虑总体、样本及先验信息，实现了对随机变量的精确预测。通过建立进度动态控制模型，实现面向施工全过程的高碾压混凝土坝施工实时仿真与优化，最终实现基于实时监控信息的高碾压混凝土坝施工进度动态控制。工程应用结果表明，该方法有效提高了的施工仿真的准确性和实时性，使得施工仿真结果和实际施工进度具有更好的贴合度。综合上述结果，本研究解决高碾压混凝土坝施工进度动态控制中存在的应用基础科学问题，不仅具有重要的理论意义，而且具有很强的工程应用价值。