规模养种低碳循环农业系统深度开发对策反馈仿真应用研究

By Biogas energy supply chain and feedback Biologic Chain Engineering of the Biogas Fluid Resource in the Scale Planting and Cultivating Low Carbon Cycle Agricultural System, to realize comprehensive development and utilization the output resources Biogas and Biogas Fluid fromBiogas Project. The depth and sustainable development of the complex feedback system, with the prerequisite to realize of the target in each subsystem. The existing research shows that: By using theory and method of system science, discussing the developing countermeasure of system coupling is the key to promoting the development of the system.This project utilizes the team innovative Vertex Feedback Weighted Graph Analysis Method, Flow Rate Basic In-tree Modeling Method, Minimum Feedback Fundamental Mode Set Generation Method, Eliminating the Growth Upper Limit Restriction Management Countermeasures Generation Method, etc, combined with linear algebra and graph theory, multi-objective programming theory, constructs the total 11 In-tree Scale Planting and Cultivating Low Carbon Cycle Agricultural System Feedback Simulation Analysis Models including Daily Mean Stock, Scale Breeding Profit, Year Pig Manure Amount, Year Residential Urine Amount, Field Pig Urine Annual Output of Biogas Amount, Household Pig Manure Annual Output of Biogas Amount, Biogas Fluid Year Utilization Amount, Household Income, Government Support of Scientific Research, Financing Volume of Cooperative, Amount of Pollution, generates and tests management countermeasures through the feedback simulation analysis of the System Structure, generates、tests and corrects the management countermeasures which promote the system of deeply development through the feedback simulation analysis of the System Structure, develops the Base application study on the theoretical results of the study in Jiangxi Province, and feeds back the implementation effect, in order to construct the Practice Bases which have value to popularize.

规模养种低碳循环农业系统中通过沼气能源产品供应链、沼液资源反馈生物链工程，实现综合开发利用沼气工程厌氧发酵产出物沼气、沼液资源的目的。此复杂反馈系统的深度开发和可持续发展，以系统中各子系统目标责任的实现为前提。已有的研究表明：利用系统科学的理论与方法，探讨系统耦合的开发对策是促进系统发展的关键。本项目利用团队创新的顶点反馈赋权图分析法、流率基本入树建模法、极小反馈基模分析法、消除增长上限制约管理对策生成法等，与线性代数、图论、多目标规划理论相结合，构造包括日均存栏数、规模养殖利润、年猪粪量、年猪尿量、场猪尿年产沼气量、户猪粪年产沼气量、沼液年利用量、农户收入、政府科研扶持力度、合作社资金量、污染量共11棵入树的区域规模养种低碳循环农业开发系统反馈仿真分析模型，通过反馈仿真分析生成、检验与修正促进系统深度开发的管理对策，在江西进行示范推广应用研究，并反馈实施效果，建设具有推广价值的实践基地。

课题《规模养种低碳循环农业深度开发对策反馈仿真应用研究》针对江西农村生猪规模养殖区沼气能源、沼液资源综合开发利用问题，利用系统动力学理论及反馈动态复杂性分析技术创新研究成果，从低碳经济的视角进行生物质能循环利用对策及模式研究：在对养种结合循环农业发展模式系统分析的基础上，建立了有效刻画系统发展的SD模型；利用创新的SD模型极小反馈基模集入树组合删除生成法、关键变量关联反馈环分析技术，进行管理对策的生成研究；通过系统反馈环开发管理、管理对策的实施反馈，进行规模养种低碳循环农业基地的创建研究。研究过程中取得的主要理论研究成果包括：提出了SD模型极小反馈基模集入树组合删除生成法，实现了规范化的生成一个确定复杂系统的极小反馈基模；提出了关键变量关联反馈环分析法，为反馈环结构分析提供了一种规范性的方法，为复杂系统发展管理对策的制定提供一个可操作的流程。项目研究的理论成果在德邦牧业有限公司基地进行基地实施创建研究，取得了具有实用性和示范性的成果，基地成为江西省规模养殖生态农业的模范基地。项目研究在国内核心期刊发表论文5篇，其他期刊论文1篇，录用1篇。