遴选隐伏型水热资源带（区）过程的模型化研究

We propose the inferring process mechanism for undiscovered hydrothermal resources ,in response to such problems as the low success rate, high risk, the uncertainty of recovery and dynamic reserves and the absence of method combining the inferring process model with the thermal-hydro-chemistry-mechanics (THCM) dynamic simulation platform in present. Based on the GIS modeling of geological data, numerical techniques and the influence on dynamic thermal reservoir caused by THCM coupled process, combining the open geological date, the GIS technology, the probability theory and Dynamic Monte Carlo method and the evolution of the seepage, thermal, chemical, mechanics of the geothermal reservoir and cap-rock, we establish a model system to conduct the response characteristic both the geological factors and the undiscovered hydrothermal resources. Besides, in response to traditional shallow temperature test method problems, the small field test equipments named the "2-meter" test instrument on the shallow-temperature measurement principle is developed, and the indicator system of the "2-meter" test method is built. We verify and optimize the accuracy of the inferring evaluation model system and the "2-meter" test method, though analyzing the calculation results of the examples of the classic geothermal field and experimental data. Meantime the geological data, geophysical data, geochemistry data, etc of Tengchong area in Yunnan province and Xiamen city in Fujian province and the day pond western in Changbaishang mountain are also used to examine the results of the model inferring. At last, the prospect undiscovered hydrothermal resources will be inferred in some blank area in the day pond western in Changbaishang mountain and Xiamen city in Fujian provinc by using of these techniques and methods. All this will provide the scientific basis for inferring undiscovered hydrothermal resources.

针对目前遴选隐伏水热资源带（区）过程的成功率偏低、高风险、恢复和动态储量难以确定以及未见真正的隐伏遴选模型结合THCM耦合动态模拟平台等问题，据地质数据的GIS模型化处理和数值技术研究其遴选机理以及多场耦合作用对动态热储的影响，把开放的地质数据、GIS平台技术、概率及Dynamic Monte Carlo方法以及热储盖层中渗透、热、化学、力学场的演化结合起来，建立模型化系统，寻找隐伏热储的地质因素响应规律。另外，依据浅层测温原理，针对传统浅层测温缺陷，改进并研发"2-meter"法的小型化装备并建立测试指标体系。通过经典热田算例和现场实验，结合云南腾冲、福建厦门和长白山天池西的地质数据，验证研发的预测评估模型化系统和"2-meter"测温法的准确性，并优化模型和技术方法。使用这些技术和方法在长白山池西、福建厦门等地开展扩大区域的远景预测和筛选靶区，为遴选隐伏水热资源带（区）提供科学依据。

针对目前遴选隐伏水热资源带（区）过程的成功率低、高风险、动态储量难以确定的问题，课题组开展遴选隐伏型水热资源带（区）过程的模型化研究。应用断层、红外遥感、布格重力异常、磁异常、地震等因素作为证据因子，采用基于GIS的指数叠加法、证据权重法等模型研究隐伏水热资源的遴选机理，把开放的地质数据、GIS平台技术、概率方法结合起来，建立模型化系统，致力于寻找深部水热型热储的地质因素响应规律。另外，根据浅层测温法原理，针对传统浅层测温缺陷，改进并研发多功能原位热物性测试仪并建立其测试指标体系，形成了一整套从硬件到软件、从室内研发到野外应用的“2-meter”测温设备体系，提出基于浅层测温法的地温预测模型，扩大浅层测温法及其设备的应用范围。通过理论研究和现场实验，结合土耳其西安纳托利亚、云南腾冲、福建厦门的地质、地球物理和地球化学数据，验证研发的地热预测评估的模型化系统和“2-meter”测温法的适用性和准确性，优化模型和技术方法。基于GIS模型化方法的深部水热型地热潜力区预测和基于浅层测温法的浅部水热型地热异常区预测的研究，对于地热靶区筛选、地热资源利用起到推动作用。