能源结构低碳演化动力机制及调控战略研究

Low-carbon energy structure is the policy option to promote coordinate development of economic and environmental. Focusing on how the evolution of energy structure affects the carbon intensity, this project tries to set up the theory of dynamic mechanism of China's low-carbon energy structure and then to make policy analysis from continues and quantitative point of view. Firstly, we identify internal and external factors of energy structure by using dynamic decomposition method and path analysis. Multivariate statistical methods and dynamic decomposition techniques are applied to quantify those factors. Thus an indexing system of influencing factors of low-carbon energy structure is formed. Secondly, we study energy substitution mechanism by using new types of Fourier and asymptotic ideal model. Evolution of energy substitution is carried out by setting different scenarios. Economic mechanism of energy structure evolution is researched. Thirdly, we construct an energy structure-economic growth-carbon intensity nonlinear dynamical system by using nonlinear evolution equations. We apply stability theory and bifurcation theory to deduce dynamical characteristics of the system which is close related to the coupling between energy structure and carbon intensity. Numerical simulation is performed to obtain the evolutionary pathway of energy structure. Thus we cam get the potential contribution of the evolution of energy structure to achieve carbon intensity target. Then, we add policy factors such as carbon tax as parameters of the dynamical system to study response of energy structure evolution to policy variables. Various kinds of low-carbon policy are obtained as the output of the system. Thus we complete the theory of dynamic mechanism of China's low-carbon energy structure. Finally, we provide some policy suggestions on China's strategy of energy structure adjustment based on the above research. This project makes theoretical basis for the Chinese low-carbon energy strategy.

能源结构低碳化是促进经济和环境协调发展的政策选择。本项目基于非线性动力学理论，以能源结构演变如何影响碳强度为主线，构建能源结构演化系统，形成能源结构低碳演化的动力机制理论并作政策分析。首先用路径分析法识别能源结构演化的内外因并用多元统计方法、动态分解技术作定量分析，形成能源结构低碳演化影响因素指标体系。其次采用新型傅立叶及渐近理想模型研究能源替代机制，设置情景进行演化分析，研究能源结构演变的经济机理。再次，构建能源结构—经济增长—碳强度演化系统，采用稳定性理论、分岔理论推演系统的动力学特征，探就能源结构与碳强度的耦合作用；数值仿真得到能源结构演化路径，获取能源结构演化对实现碳强度目标的贡献潜力。然后将碳税等政策因素纳入演化系统，研究能源结构演变对政策变量的响应，从系统导出多种低碳调控策略，形成能源结构低碳演化动力机制理论。最后给出能源结构低碳演化的政策建议，为中国能源低碳战略奠定理论基础。

优化能源结构以促进经济低碳转型是应对气候变化的必然选择。中国因为碳排放量体量大、增长快受到了全世界的广泛关注，承受着越来越多的国际压力。科学认识能源结构低碳演化的影响因素，合理评估能源结构低碳的演化路径，全面刻画确能源结构演变的复杂机理，是我国能源环境宏观战略与政策的重要课题。. 围绕上述科学问题，本项目从系统科学的角度，采用复杂系统思想，应用系统动力学理论，研究中国能源结构演化与低碳发展的复杂行为。重点开展了l四个方面的研究：（1）能源消费结构演化分析。从我国能源消费现状出发，应用非线性动力学理论，定量研究我国能源消费结构的演变过程与规律，分析能源结构的阶段性特征，揭示能源结构演变与替代率和增长率的依赖关系。(2）能源与碳排放市场的耦合机制研究。综合应用混沌时间序列分析、系统动力学理论、计量经济学模型，分析能源市场与碳排放交易市场的非线性特征、能源结构对碳排放的影响，以及两者的复杂动力学行为。（3）低碳经济的市场属性研究。应用多种计量经济学模型、时间序列可视图网络分析技术，设计市场运行效率的广义Hurst度量，提出量化市场动态相似性的 Jaccod系数，分析中国碳排放权交易市场的运行效率及相互影响。（4）能源环境系统中的复杂行为研究。应用系统动力学理论构建资源-经济-环境动力系统，通过分析系统的混沌与振荡行为揭示环境税、污染强度对资源、经济、绿色发展的影响。. 本项目已在国内外期刊发表学术论文26篇、会议论文5篇，其中SCI&SSCI收录14篇、EI收录6篇。培养了10名硕士。项目促进了系统科学的理论方法与能源政策的交叉融合，为我国制定合理的能源环境政策提供了科学依据。