推动电动汽车发展的充换电服务网络演变类比研究及其与配电网协同规划理论

The research mainly focus on the Charging and Swapping Service Network (CSSN) evolution, coordinated planning theory and market development simulation regarding certain typical development stages of electric vehicles (EVs), which successively contain the promotion stage, the rapid growth stage and the stable operation stage. Based on similarity indices, the developing industries with high similarity value are filtered, by which an analogy algorithm integrated with dominant factor identification, industry development model and market situation assessment is expected to be established. According to this algorithm, an analogy theory for analyzing CSSN evolution is proposed, which is applied to estimate network parameters and probabilistic growth model. Combined with traditional cluster effects of EV profile, a integrated time-varying response model with both load and energy consideration are presented. Furthermore, based on multi-timescale and multi-objective planning model, the kernel parameters configuration strategy is deeply studied which can be used to improve utility of EVs customers. Considering increase of CSSN, the detail technology effects for electric distribution network are studied regarding connection decision of charging and swapping station. And then, the novel coordinated planning theory for charging service and distribution network is studied with the research framework of multi-objective time interval and scenarios regarding coexisting dynamic and static characteristics of mobile EV. The service ability improvement strategy of both charging service network and distribution network is also investigated. At the last section of research, the market development and operation simulation methods are proposed based on probabilistic inference algorithm, which are expected to provide new tools to predict and investigate market mechanism of EVs industry. However by improving proposed coordinated planning model, dynamic multi-objective gaming scenarios are established to study equilibrium conditions and effects of market participants' behaviors. The research achievements will strongly support the decision making and solution based on "Analogy analysis - infrastructure optimal configuration- networks coordinated planning - market evolution simulation" regarding massive EV integrating into smart grid. The contributions of project are highly expected to provide academic supports for EV industry and smart grid development.

围绕电动汽车在示范推广-快速增长-平稳发展三个阶段中充换电服务网络演变、协同规划与市场模拟展开研究。通过相似度评估，筛选与充换电服务网络高度类似产业，建立主导因素识别、增长数学模型、市场态势评估等方面的类比算法，提出其网络演变的类比分析理论，获取其网络特征参数和充换电量增长模型及概率特征，结合传统集群效应，构建完整的跨时间尺度充换电力电量混合响应模型；研究充换电站多时段多目标选点定容优化模型及其面向用户效用的核心参数配置策略；研究充换电负荷特性与充换电站布点配置对配电网的量化影响，建立多目标多时段多场景的"动静"协同规划理论，协调动态增长过程中双网服务能力；基于概率推理研究不确定条件下充换电服务市场模拟演绎算法，改进双网协同规划模型，使之能体现均衡达成的多目标动态博弈过程。研究成果可为推动电动汽车发展提供基于"类比分析-基建优化-协同规划-演绎模拟"的理论分析框架。

本项目围绕电动汽车在“示范推广-快速增长-平稳发展”多阶段中充换电服务网络演变与规划、配电网适应性协同规划领域展开研究，在历史数据缺乏下电动汽车规模推演、充电服务网络多维评价与优化配置、充电服务网与配电网匹配测度与联动规划等科学问题上实现了理论突破，能为政府、企业、群众在选择电动汽车及其对电网的影响与规划决策等方面提供参考，在此研究基础上也申请获得了一系列相关专利与横纵向课题，实现工程应用。发表学术论文26篇，其中包含IEEE Trans. Smart Grid等高水平SCI期刊论文7篇；项目研究培养了多名优秀博硕士研究生与青年骨干研究人员，先后获得博(硕)士国家奖学金、优秀论文等多项奖励和荣誉。.具体而言，本项目理论研究内容主要包含以下几点。首先，考虑在电动汽车发展初期缺乏历史运行数据情况下，创新性地提出通过与电动汽车相关的政府政策、补贴价格、常规车价格、人口等可预见发展因素及其关联性进行推导，从宏观角度建立了一套电动汽车规模发展的系统动力学理论模型，量化辨识了电动汽车在各阶段的发展特性及关键影响因素。而后基于消费者行为学理论提出用户购车行为模型，从微观个体的角度创新性地构建出电动汽车规模演化的多代理市场演化模型。通过两种模型对比分析验证了合理性，并给出了适用条件。其次，基于充电服务网络演变特性，建立了包括行驶“可达性”等新型核心参数评价指标体系，提出了基于“模糊元”的充电网络规划方案评估方法。在此基础上，从全寿命周期成本、分时电价激励、驾驶人出行链、交通流影响、配电网运行约束、投资收益用户效益耦合以及兼顾不同角色利益等多维角度进行了电动汽车充或换电网络规划研究。配电网的规划需要适应电动汽车发展的需求，最后，基于前述研究基础，分别提出了包含基于交通流和价格激励的双网协同静态规划，以及考虑电动汽车规模推演发展下双网匹配测度与多阶段多目标联动动态规划研究。上述理论研究均通过标准算例或实际算例进行了验证分析。