建设项目物化能耗区域间作用机制与差异化测度模型研究

The environmental damage generated by the embodied energy consumption of construction projects has attracted a global concern. However, the assessment accuracy is restricted by the incompatibility between embodied energy connotation and its assessment method, which may lead to the ignorance of large energy-saving potential during the building embodied phase. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the multi-regional interactions and differentiated assessment model of energy use embodied in construction projects by combining the industrial economics and complex systems theory, using complex network analysis, multi-regional input-output (MRIO) analysis, and life cycle assessment (LCA) as the underlying methods. A theoretic model describing energy flows induced by construction industry are firstly developed to explore the multi-regional interactions and regional characteristics by extracting the regional characteristic variables. Subsequently, the critical factors (CFs) influencing the embodied energy consumption at the project level are identified. By mapping the project-level critical factors into the corresponding regional characteristic variables from the industrial level, the theoretic model is modified further, which is used as a computational structure for developing a differentiated assessment model of embodied energy consumption in construction projects. The developed differentiated model is proposed to conduct scenario-based sensitivity analysis and project-level energy optimization. The outcomes of this research can be regarded as a solid theoretical foundation for improving assessment accuracy and energy efficiency during building construction process, which is beneficial for energy management and conservation at the project level.

建设项目物化能耗造成的环境破坏已经引起全球重视。但是，受制于建设项目物化能内涵属性与测度方法不匹配而产生的量化失实问题，其度量结果的精确性就建造阶段本身巨大的节能优势而言还有较大差距。本研究以产业经济学为基本分析范式，借鉴复杂系统理论，综合运用复杂网络分析、多区域投入产出分析、全生命周期评价等建模工具，构建建设项目产业能流系统理论模型，通过挖掘区域特征变量，揭示能流的区域间作用机制；识别影响建设项目物化能耗的关键影响因素，通过实现项目层面关键影响因素到产业层面区域特征变量的多层级耦合，构建建设项目产业能流系统修正模型；并以此为算法框架建立建设项目物化能耗差异化测度模型，开展面向情景推演的区域间物化能耗敏感性分析，设计物化能耗优化路径。本课题对建设项目物化能耗区域间作用机制与差异化测度模型的研究，是对工程节能和管理体系的有益补充，可以为提高物化能耗测度精确性以及提升能耗利用效率提供理论支持。

建设项目物化能同时具备微观项目层面与宏观产业层面的双重内涵，为了实现物化能耗研究过程中产业区域差异性与项目建造复杂性的有机统一，本研究拟以产业经济学为基本分析范式，借鉴复杂系统理论，综合采用复杂网络分析、多区域投入产出分析、结构路径分析、全生命周期评价等方法，围绕建设项目物化能耗区域间作用机制与差异化测度这一关键科学问题展开。首先，设计了建筑业能源效率差异化测度方法，并进行了建筑业多维能耗核算与产业链路径演化分析，从建筑业能流网络结构与形态功能角度出发，探索了建筑业能流区域间作用机制与网络演化机制；然后，开展了建设项目能耗关键影响因素识别及多尺度节能优化研究，识别了建设项目质量缺陷关键影响因素识别，通过多智能体建模下的既有建筑节能激励政策模拟仿真，提出了基于能值分析的建成区可持续更新决策方法；最后，对产业能流区域间作用机制实施反演溯源，揭示了产业能流区域间集聚演化规律，并在产业能流区域间驱动效应、产业能流与技术创新时空溢出效应的相关问题中验证了研究成果。本项目研究成果将深化对于建设项目物化能耗区域间作用机制的科学认识，为提高其能耗管理水平提供坚实的科学思想和技术手段，推动能源经济学和复杂性科学交叉学科的前沿发展。