基于系统损耗考虑的交通出行成本分析方法研究

Cost analysis is an important basis for travelers's decision making in choice of traffic mode. Rationality of travel cost calculation method directly determines the rationality of traffic mode choice to a great extent. By exploratory investigation of China's Spring Festival return by motor cycle, severe defects in existing travel cost analysis methods were exposed. Then, an improved method based on traffic system engineering theories is proposed, which can consider systematic consuming and wearing loss due to traveling. It is called consuming and wearing loss analyzing method, short for CWLAM. Research contents of the project include five aspects. Firstly, by case refining of the tidal phenomenon of China's Spring Festival return by motorcycle and literature analysis, basic concepts of CWLAM will be defined. Secondly, by literature analysis, calculation models of CWLAM will be established. Thirdly, comprehensive investigation measures combining site survey, free clinic survey, issuing safe and sound round-trip paid contact cards and internet survey, will be used to collect data to calibrate CWLAM models. Fourthly, four hypotheses deduced from the basic concept of CWLAM will be testified by site survey and experimental research. Finally, as a case study, application of the research conclusions will be explored in solving the tidal phenomenon of China's Spring Festival return by motorcycle. Management counter strategies for the phenomenon will be presented. The project is to provide new ideas for the theoretical study on travel costs and scientific guidance for people to rationally choose traffic mode. It has significance in giving priority to public transport development and promoting green travel.

交通出行成本分析是出行者进行交通工具选择决策的重要基础，出行成本计算方法是否合理，很大程度上直接决定着交通工具选择决策的合理性。通过对春运摩托车返乡潮的探索性调查研究，发现现有的交通出行成本分析方法存在严重的不足，针对此问题，以交通系统工程理论为基础提出一种能考虑系统损耗的交通出行成本分析方法--损耗分析法。课题研究内容包括：（1）通过文献分析和案例提炼，提出损耗分析法的基本概念及基本内涵；（2）通过理论研究，构建损耗分析法的计算模型；（3）综合文献研究、网络搜索和调查研究等多种手段收集数据，标定损耗分析法计算模型的参数；（4）结合现场问卷调查和实验研究对损耗分析法的研究假设进行实证分析；（5）以春运摩托车返乡潮现象为例探讨研究成果的应用，制定管理对策。课题旨在为交通出行成本的理论研究提供新的思路，为人们合理选择交通出行方式提供科学的指导，对大力发展公共交通、倡导绿色出行有重要的现实意义。

交通出行成本分析是出行者进行交通工具选择决策的重要基础，出行成本计算方法是否合理，很大程度上直接决定着交通工具选择决策的合理性。由于现有出行成本定量分析方法缺乏系统性的考虑，从系统工程学与广义成本理论的角度，提出一种能考虑系统损耗的交通出行成本分析方法—损耗分析法。重点对现有出行成本计算方法不足之处进行改进以及补充人体损耗成本计算方法，以对春运摩托车返乡潮为应用背景对改进出行成本计算方法进行验证。相关成果：其中论文九篇，题目分别是《低温环境下摩托车出行的人体损耗成本模型》;《考虑系统性与时变性的交通事故风险计算模型》;《机动车使用成本计算模型》;《异质交通流条件下交通外部损耗成本计算模型》;《春运摩托车返乡潮形成机理调查分析》;《春运摩托车返乡潮对策》;《基于消费行为经济的交通工具选择决策机制》;《基于行车风险的摩托车限速标准研究》;《弯坡组合路段可靠性设计方法研究》。国家发明专利一个:《一种低温环境下交通出行的人体损耗计算方法》;软件著作权一套《交通出行成本计算软件》;编写一份关于《春运摩托车返乡潮现象的调查报告》。上述研究旨在为交通出行成本的理论研究提供新思路，为人们合理选择交通出行方式提供科学的指导，对大力发展公共交通、倡导绿色出行的重要意义。