屏蔽数据系统的可靠性评估研究

Based on accelerated life testing technology, the research on the statistal analysis and reliability assessment of masked data systems is one of popular issues on the reliability research of products. At present, the domestic and foreign research results are still very scarce. The project uses the theories and methods of the classical statistics and Bayesian statistics and Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method to investigate the statistical analysis and reliability assessment of series systems and parallel systems of masked data, under the situations of accelerated life tests of different censored constant stress and step stress. The research is mainly about the estimation of life parameters of components and systems (point estimation, interval estimation or confidence limits), and the classical estimation and Bayes estimation of the reliability index such as the reliability function, failure rate, and the average life, etc. Based on theoretical analysis and research, the application of reliability assessment is conducted by using the power systems of mobile communication networks. The research results could help improve the stability and reliability of communication power systems, reduce maintenance costs, and provide scientific theoretical analysis and methods. In addition, the research of this project will further enrich the theory of reliability assessment, and it has important theoretical significance and application value.

基于加速寿命试验技术，研究屏蔽数据系统的统计分析与可靠性评估是产品可靠性研究的热点问题之一。目前，国内外研究成果还很稀少。本项目利用经典统计理论、贝叶斯统计理论与方法等，并借助蒙特卡洛（MC）仿真技术，在不同截尾恒定应力、步进应力加速寿命试验场合下，研究屏蔽数据串联、并联系统的统计分析与可靠性评估。主要有：部件和系统寿命参数的估计（点估计、区间估计或置信限），可靠度函数、失效率及平均寿命等可靠性指标的经典估计和Bayes估计。在理论分析与研究的基础上，以移动通信网络电源系统为对象，进行可靠性评估的应用研究。为提高通信电源系统的稳定性与可靠性，降低维护成本，提供科学的理论分析和方法。此外，本项目的研究将进一步丰富可靠性评估理论，具有重要的理论意义和应用价值。

本项目在逐步截尾、逐步混合截尾情形下，研究了屏蔽数据串联、并联系统及混联系统恒加、步加寿命试验的经典统计推断方法，贝叶斯、经验贝叶斯及其他统计推断方法，并对不同方法的优劣性进行比较研究。研究给出正常应力条件下，部件及系统寿命参数与可靠性指标的估计（点估计与区间估计，或近似置信区间）。在此基础上，对估计量的性质、点估计与区间估计的精度进行分析比较，并对部件及系统的可靠度函数、失效率与平均寿命等可靠性指标进行估计。在理论分析与研究的基础上，以电子产品为对象，开展系统可靠性评估的应用研究。我们的研究结果为移动通信网络电源系统寿命试验的统计分析与可靠性评估、质量管理提供理论分析与科学方法，具有工程应用价值。