基于语义的边疆地区泥石流灾害辅助应急决策研究

Yunnan is the mutiple occurrence of the debris flow disaster,but its emergency handling is mainly on emergency plan whose adaptability and flexibility are poor.So the research focus on the aid emergency decision-making techonolgy of the debris flow disaster in the border area based on semantics in the project.Firstly,to describe the dynamic uncertainty knowledge in debris flow,classic description logics is extended with the extenics,and the extenics description logics will be given. Secondly, one part of ontology is set up from the debris flow disaster database,the other part of ontology is constructed according to the debris flow disaster historical materials,this two parts ontology composite the ontology base on emergency decision of debris flow disaster accident.Next, we will research the way to check the logicality of the knowledge expression and the semantics relation and the clash about the ontology base,and give the way to resolve the inconsistent to optimize the knowledge base. Then the emergency knowledge index way and the emergency plan generating method based on the ontology inference will be research. Finally, we will design and develop the emergency decision simulation system about the debris flow disaster accident based on the former research. This system will forecast the coming developing state about the debris flow disaster accident and assist to decide according to the current information of the debris flow disaster accident. The theory and measure system of the disaster management and the knowledge inference will be enriched by the desired results of this research, the ability to rapidly response and correctly handle the disaster accident will be raised by them, the research result can guide to improve and develop the disaster accident management.

云南是泥石流灾害多发地区，但对其处理还以预案为主，预案适应性、灵活性差。基于此，将研究工作定位在基于语义的边疆地区泥石流灾害辅助应急决策研究。首先为了描述泥石流灾害中的动态不确定知识，基于经典描述逻辑进行可拓扩展,建立可拓描述逻辑；接着,依据泥石流灾害数据库建立一部分本体，根据泥石流灾害历史资料建立另一部分本体，形成泥石流灾害应急决策本体知识库；然后研究检验该知识库中知识表达、语义关系的逻辑性和冲突方法，提出解决不一致性的方法来优化知识库。接着研究基于本体推理的泥石流灾害应急知识检索和预案生成方法；最后设计和实现泥石流灾害应急决策仿真系统，根据当前泥石流灾害的信息，对泥石流灾害的未来发展态势做出预测，进行辅助决策。本课题预期研究成果能丰富和发展现有的灾害管理和知识推理的理论与方法体系，提高对灾害事件的快速反应和正确处理的能力，指导灾害事件管理的改进和发展。

该项目面向泥石流灾害及其决策领域，应用扩展描述逻辑、领域本体等理论和方法，对泥石流灾害及决策的信息资源进行语义化研究，丰富和发展现有的灾害管理和知识处理的理论与方法体系。依托项目实施，研究了基于可拓集合的泥石流灾害应急决策知识本体的描述语言，以基本描述逻辑ALC为扩展对象，在ALC的基础上增加可拓逻辑中的事元来扩展描述逻辑ALC提出描述逻辑EEDL，建立了EEDL的语法和语义；基于描述逻辑SHOIN(D)进行可拓扩展，提出可拓描述逻辑SHOIN(D)ES，建立描述逻辑SHOIN(D)ES语法、语义，对其推理问题进行探讨；构建了泥石流灾害数据库到泥石流灾害本体库的转换机制，探讨了基于关系数据库的泥石流灾害应急决策本体半自动构建机制；研究了泥石流灾害应急决策本体建立机制，提出了泥石流灾害应急决策本体构建的原则、构建的步骤，并对泥石流灾害应急决策本体进行构建；构建了泥石流灾害应急决策本体库与泥石流灾害应急决策数据库的融合模型、基于本体的泥石流灾害应急决策信息集成模型；建立了基于泥石流灾害领域知识图谱的检索模型，并对其中的查询扩展进行了探讨，构建了基于泥石流灾害领域知识图谱的检索原型系统。在国内外学术期刊、国际会议上发表论文21篇，其中SCIE期刊论文1篇、EI期刊论文4篇、EI会议论文10篇；在科学出版社出版学术著作1部；获得外观设计专利2项；项目组成员1人职称晋升，2人遴选为博士生导师，1人考取博士研究生；培养硕士研究生10（已毕业5名）；团队成员先后共参加学术会议10余人次。