干旱对冬小麦生长及产量的影响模拟研究

As one of the most serious natural disasters, drought seriously affects the agricultural production and food security in the world. The simulation study on the effects of drought on crop growth and yield is of great significance for understanding the formation mechanism of agricultural drought, providing regional agricultural drought monitoring and assessment. Baoding city, located in Huanghuaihai Plain in China, is intended to be selected as the study area, with winter wheat as the research object. Using water control experiment, site observation and sample in the area, the project aims to conduct the simulation of regional crop growth driven by multi-source data, in order to achieve the integration of micro and macro research. Through simulating effects of different drought conditions on crop growth and yield, the project will reveal the law of the influence of drought stress on the growth of winter wheat in different growth stages. Through optimizing drought index for agricultural drought monitoring, and investigate the mechanism of drought stress on crop growth and yield. the project will also constructing the evaluation method of the loss of crop yield due to drought, and quantitatively evaluate the effects of drought on regional crop yield, to realize the study on mechanism-process-pattern of regional agricultural drought monitoring and assessment. It is expected that the project will help us further understand the formation process of agricultural drought, the study can provide new ideas for the drought damage assessment in our country, improve our country’s agricultural drought defense capacity, and provide scientific basis for a long-term planning of crop security.

干旱灾害是最严重的自然灾害之一，严重影响着全球农业生产和我国粮食安全。开展干旱对我国冬小麦生长和产量影响模拟研究，对摸清农业干旱的形成机制、提高区域农业干旱监测和评估水平具有重要意义。本项目拟选择位于我国黄淮海平原的河北省保定市作为主要研究区，以冬小麦为研究对象，利用水分控制实验、站点观测和样区定点采样，形成多源数据驱动下的区域作物生长过程模拟，实现微观与宏观研究相结合和尺度转换；模拟不同干旱条件对作物生长过程及产量影响，揭示不同生长阶段干旱胁迫状况对冬小麦生长过程的影响规律，优化适于农业干旱监测的干旱指数，探索干旱胁迫作物生长的影响机制；构建作物产量干旱损失评估方法，定量评估干旱对区域作物产量的影响，实现区域农业干旱监测与评估的机制—过程—格局的一体化研究，为我国旱灾损失评估提供新的思路，为深入理解农业旱灾的形成过程与机理，提高农业干旱防御能力及粮食安全长远规划提供科学依据。

以位于黄淮海平原的保定市为研究区，以冬小麦为研究对象，在水分控制实验基础上，校正和验证作物生长模型，首先作物生长模型参数本地化。综合作物生长模型模拟和多种气象干旱指数，优选最佳干旱监测指数，分析不同生长阶段干旱胁迫状况对冬小麦生长过程的影响规律，构建旱灾作物损失评估方法，完成了区域兼顾作物生长阶段的干旱对作物产量和生物量的影响研究。项目研究结果表明：SPEIs+90下的SPEI与作物产量关系最好，不同生长阶段干旱对作物的生物量和产量影响差异较大，基于模型模拟的产量旱灾损失评估方法结果可靠性非常高，尤其在评估重度及重度以上干旱对作物产量的影响时可靠性值达到1，其评估结果完全可靠。定量评估区域作物产量干旱损失，为合理利用水资源、提高农业干旱防御能力及粮食安全长远规划提供科学依据。.项目共发表论文5篇，所发表的5篇论文均为SCI论文, 本项目已经顺利完成了研究内容, 达到预期的研究目标。