基于水位-水质-水生态联合模拟的湖泊健康动态评价研究

Although lake health has become the core goal of exogenous input regulation such as ecological water supplement and exogenous pollutant input control, existing research has not revealed the systematic linkage between exogenous inputs and lake health, hindering the effective regulation of exogenous inputs due to the lack of quantitative basis. In this research, the structured and stepwise research route is adopted, and various methods are used such as ecological monitoring, experimental analysis, computational simulation and scenarios setting. The Baiyangdian Lake is taken as the study area due to its complex ecological structure and sensitivity to exogenous inputs. The driving factors for lake ecosystem degradation are analyzed, and new lake health assessment indicators, such as water level, water quality and water ecology, and assessment methods are developed based on the theory of structure, function and system. A simulation model combining water level, water quality and water ecology is established to simulate the dynamic change of these factors in different exogenous input conditions, which can be used to explore the input-response relationship between exogenous input and lake health systematically. This model will be a breakthrough from static-state to dynamic-state ecological evaluation, allowing the prediction of future, and can be applied to dynamic optimization of regulation plans of exogenous inputs. This project can improve the contents and method system of lake health assessment, remedy the defects of former related research, and provide a scientific method and basis of quantitative technique for the integrated lake management and restoration in China.

湖泊健康成为生态补水、入湖污染控制等外源输入调控的核心目标，但现有研究未建立外源输入与湖泊健康的系统关联，难以为调控提供定量依据。本项目联合运用生态监测、实验分析、计算模拟、情景设定等方法，采用结构化、递进式研究思路，以生态结构复杂，对外源输入变化敏感的白洋淀为例，开展生态退化驱动因子分析，提出基于结构、功能与系统，包括水文、水质、水生态、沉积物等要素的湖泊健康评价指标体系与方法，建立水位-水质-水生态联合模拟模型，模拟不同外源输入情景下水位、水质与水生态要素动态变化，系统探究外源与湖泊健康的输入-响应关系，实现由基于时间点的 "静"态评价到具有预测、预报功能的"动"态评价的突破，创新湖泊健康评价技术办法，应用于流域外源输入调控方案动态优选。本研究有助于完善湖泊健康评价研究内容与方法体系，弥补研究不足，为我国湖泊综合管理与修复提供科学方法与定量技术依据。

湖泊湿地健康表征湖泊湿地生态功能的强弱，也是衡量生态补水、入湖污染控制等外源输入调控效果的核心指标，当前研究缺乏外源输入与湖泊湿地健康的系统关联，难以为调控提供定量依据。. 本项目联合运用生态监测、实验分析、计算模拟、情景设定等方法，选取白洋淀、汉石桥湿地开展研究，提出包括水文、水质、水生态、沉积物等要素的湖泊健康评价指标体系与方法，构建水位-水质-水生态联合模拟模型，模拟不同外源输入情景下水位、水质与水生态要素动态变化，系统探究外源与湖泊湿地健康的输入-响应关系，模拟各情景下湖泊营养盐及水生物动态变化。. 本项目提出的湖泊湿地健康评价体系包含结构、功能和系统三大类，水位、TN浓度、TP浓度、浮游植物群落初级生产量（P）等16项指标。评价白洋淀14处水域所处健康状态。. 构建的白洋淀水位-水质模型以MIKE21模型为平台，选用MIKE21 HD模块模拟水位和水深，ECO Lab模块模拟淀区污染物扩散和富营养化程度。分别选取2008年2月-6月的水位数据、端村水动力数据、端村和圈头两处水质数据率定模型。经验证，模型中水位模拟最大绝对误差值为5.9cm，平均相对误差为0.14%，水质模拟结果基本反映出实际的水质变化趋势，模拟效果较好。构建的水生态模型包含11个状态变量、5个外部变量，实现水动力水质模型与水生态模型的关联。设置两种补水情景，经过联合模型运算，模拟出健康评价的主要评价参数。. 在汉石桥湿地研究区，分别基于Stella平台和AQUATOX模型建立汉石桥水生态模型。两模型从不同角度反映出改变水文条件、控制污染负荷、控制水生植物覆盖与配置等生态修复策略中，增加中水补给量的生态恢复效果最优。. 项目发表SCI论文4篇，EI1篇，中文核心1篇，并获国际会议最佳论文奖1项，研究成果实现了由基于时间点的"静"态评价到具有预测、预报功能的"动"态评价的突破，创新湖泊湿地健康评价技术办法，应用于白洋淀与汉石桥湿地外源输入调控方案动态优选，为我国湖泊湿地综合管理修复提供科学方法与定量技术依据。