基于信息耦合的煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害风险评价与预警理论研究

The prevention and control of the gas explosion disasters is an important issue needed urgently to be solved in the production process of coal mines. In this project, focusing on the deep-seated reasons that the gas explosions occurred frequently, for the problems to be solved urgently in the field of the disaster risk information collection and coupling, and the risk assessment and early warning theory and applications in the prevention and control of the explosion, using the theories of safety science, system science, information science, computer science and engineering and mine safety, with theoretical study, experimental research, field observations and analysis, and computer applications and on the basis of systematic analysis and summary of the existing prevention and control for the gas explosions and the disaster risk assessment and early warning theory and applications. Firstly, the risk sources of the explosion are identified, the indexes systems and information coupling models of the risk will be studied and built based respectively on the information sources of safety monitoring system, artificial safety detection system, and other productive messages in the mine, and the coupling mechanism of the risk indexes will be clarified based on the multi-information sources. Secondly, the risk assessment models of gas explosion are set up on the basis of the coupling models of the multi-source information about the hazard factors. The risk metric standards are researched and the classification system of the risk will be established. Thirdly, the law of the risk situation and trend of the hazard will be obtained by real-time monitoring the risk factors and the dynamic state of the risk assessment, the forecasting model of the risk trend is built, and the countermeasures of pre-control for the explosion will be made. Fourthly, a simulation system is built in the laboratory and the risk assessment and early warning software is to be developed for the risk assessment based on information coupling. Finally, the theory and application system of dynamic risk assessment and early warning will be established for the gas explosion in coal mine based on the information coupling.. This project lays emphasis on the evolution of the gas explosion disasters and the early identification and dynamic risk pre-warning in coal mines, by the multi-disciplinary and applied researches, the aims of the project are to establish the theory and application system of the dynamic evaluation and early warning of the disaster risk based on the information coupling through organic combination of the coupling theory with the risk assessment and early warning system for the explosion. The researches have great significance and practical urgency to realize risk early-recognition and accidents prevention of the explosion, to improve the inherent safety level of coal mines, and to provide new theories and methods for the prevention of disasters in coal mines.

瓦斯爆炸灾害预防与控制是煤矿安全生产过程中迫切需要解决的重要课题。本项目注重瓦斯爆炸灾害频发深层次原因，针对瓦斯爆炸灾害预防与控制过程中灾害信息采集与信息耦合和风险评价与预警理论及应用领域急需解决的问题，运用安全科学、系统科学、信息科学、计算机科学与工程以及矿山安全等相关理论，采用理论分析、实验研究、现场观测与分析和计算机应用相结合的方法，建立基于多信息源的瓦斯爆炸灾害风险指标耦合机制和信息耦合模型，研究基于信息耦合的瓦斯灾害风险信息采集模式与信息化架构与平台，建立瓦斯爆炸灾害风险动态评价模型及风险分级体系，掌握瓦斯爆炸灾害风险态势规律，建立态势预测模型和制定预控对策，构建基于信息耦合的瓦斯爆炸灾害风险动态评价与预警理论及应用体系，对实现煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害风险"早期识别"和事故"事先预防"、提高煤矿本质安全化水平、为煤矿灾害预防与控制提供新的理论与方法等具有重要意义和推广应用价值。

本项目针对灾害信息采集与信息耦合和风险识别与预警等瓦斯爆炸灾害防控存在的不足，研究瓦斯涌出与积聚、引爆火源、引爆地点等瓦斯爆炸灾害典型特征及核心问题，获得了典型特征耦合规律；建立了瓦斯爆炸灾害演化因果链和演化风险分析模型，提出了从辨识、监控、分级、评估、预测、预警、对策等多环节、多层次、多步骤一体化视角建立瓦斯爆炸灾害风险识别与预警对策的灾害预控体系；系统分析了矿井安全生产监控系统信息源、人工安全检测信息源和安全生产基础信息源等信息源的结构、特点、功能，构建了瓦斯爆炸灾害风险识别与预警的多源信息耦合基本框架，提出了包括危险源信息采集平台、多源信息耦合平台、灾害风险评估与预警平台、风险预控对策与响应平台等的风险识别与预警信息平台架构；在灾害信息与信源特征分析和多源信息耦合模型构建基础上对瓦斯爆炸灾害风险因素进行系统辨识和逻辑单元划分，通过灰色关联分析法与网络分析法优化和完善了瓦斯爆炸灾害风险指标体系；根据风险指标含义、属性和值域空间，提出了风险度量标准与区间线性化方法和关键指标“一票否决制”的变权评估与预警机制，建立了基于多信息源耦合的瓦斯爆炸灾害风险分级体系；提出了风险评估的IAHP-ECM、PSO-SVM、GRA-ANP-FCE、ANP-SPA等模型与方法；指出了瓦斯涌出具有波动性、周期性和趋势性等多尺度特征，构建了瓦斯涌出预测的GM(1,1)、AR(p)、PSO-SVM、GM-AR-SVM、Elman、GRNN、EMD-Elman、EMD-SVM、EMD-PSO-SVM、EEMD-PSR-Elman、PSR-SODM等预测模型；明确了瓦斯爆炸灾害风险预警的警义、警源、警兆、警度等内涵与外延，建立了指标、单元和系统预警准则，提出了灾害风险演化时间梯度概念，构建了瓦斯涌出预警的Elman、SVM等模型和灾害风险综合预警的AHP-GT、PNN、GRA-ANP-FCE、SPA等模型；构建了矿井安全监控系统基础上的多源信息耦合模拟平台架构，研发了基于信息耦合的煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害风险动态评估与预警系统。项目研究构建了基于信息耦合的瓦斯爆炸灾害风险评估、预测与预警理论及应用体系，对实现煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害风险“早期识别”和事故“事先预防”、提高煤矿本质安全化水平、为煤矿灾害预防与控制提供新的理论与方法等具有重要意义和推广应用价值。