税收凸性的现金流控制下供应链融资与运营联合决策研究

Nowadays, small and medium enterprises(SMEs) often release capital constrains by supply chain finance. However, it is still possible that due to uncertain demands, SMEs’s broken cash flow and bankruptcy may bring about bad debt and inefficiency for the supply chain. Based on the review of substantial related literature and in-depth research from industry, we build up a cash flow control model with tax convexity consideration, to describe the risk of bankruptcy. This project analyzes the game model among capital constrained SMEs, leader of supply chain and commercial banks. The issues of risk control by cash flow monitor, tax planning, joint decisions of supply chain financing and operations are studied in a stochastic demand environment. Based on the consideration of the probability and cost of bankruptcy, we analyze companies’ financing decision, pricing and inventory decisions, and the supply chain finance service design and credit decisions from the bank’s perspective. In addition, SMEs’ financial services selection with financial constraint is also studied, as well. Eventually, we discuss the impact of factors such as tax structure, enterprise's own fund, the bankruptcy cost and uncertain demand, at companies’ decisions and supply chain performance. This study will play a significant role in enriching the models and methods of joint decision making of supply chain finance and operations, supporting SMEs’ decision making and controlling risk for the supply chain leader and commercial banks.

基于核心企业增信的供应链内外部融资缓解了中小企业融资困难的问题，然而不确定性的市场环境常使企业的现金流断裂最终资不抵债，造成不良贷款与供应链效率低下。针对该问题，本研究在全面回顾国内外相关文献和深入企业调研的基础上，以考虑凸性税收结构的现金流量刻画并控制企业的破产风险，构建资金约束的中小企业、提供内部融资的核心企业与商业银行的博弈模型，研究随机市场需求环境中，企业通过现金流控制破产风险与税收筹划，进行供应链融资与运营联合决策的问题。在考虑破产概率及成本基础上，分析企业的融资决策、产品定价-库存联合决策，及银行供应链融资产品设计与授信决策，研究资金约束的企业面对多种供应链融资业务应如何选择。最后，讨论税收结构、企业自有资金、破产成本、不确定需求等因素对各企业决策以及供应链绩效的影响。本研究将丰富供应链融资与运营联合决策模型与方法，为中小企业提供决策支持，帮助供应链核心企业与银行控制融资风险。

基于核心企业增信的供应链内外部融资缓解了中小企业融资困难的问题，然而不确定性的市场环境常使企业的现金流断裂最终资不抵债，造成不良贷款与供应链效率低下。针对该问题，本研究在全面回顾国内外相关文献和深入企业调研的基础上，以考虑凸性税收结构的现金流量刻画并控制企业的风险，构建资金约束下投融资企业的博弈模型，研究随机市场需求环境中，企业通过税收筹划、进行供应链投融资与运营联合决策的问题。在考虑税收影响的基础上，本研究丰富了供应链融资与运营联合决策模型与方法，为供应链企业提供了决策支持，帮助供应链核心企业与第三方机构控制投融资风险。本项目在供应链融资环境下的研究内容与成果包括：①基本模型：在决策目标中考虑企业的税负影响，在此基础上以企业所得税为例进行单一企业库存—定价联合决策问题研究，分析出常见税负形式对于企业决策与盈利能力的影响；②在该研究结论的基础上，进行多类企业税及政策影响下企业运营联合决策研究，分析环境税、研发税收优惠等政策的影响与政策制定建议；③考虑供应链视角，加入延期支付等多种供应链内外部投融资模式，考虑税收凸性的企业投融资与定价库存联合决策问题；④扩展模型，比较多种投融资模式对运营策略与相关绩效的影响，增加了合同制定与供应链协调的研究内容，并将结论扩展到供应链竞争的环境中。研究所获得结论对于实际企业运营亦有指导作用。