船舶安全熵突变对人-船-环境失谐响应机理研究

The catastrophe of ship safety-entropy is the premise of maritime accident occurrence. The ship safety- entropy keeps steady in a coordinated development environment in the system of Seafarer-Ship-Environment. The catastrophe of ship safety-entropy is also closely related to the disadjust of the system of Seafarer-Ship-Environment. The explict/implict signals of Seafarer-Ship-Environment disadjust of ship are always hidden in the multifactor coupling, and they are needed to be explored further. The ship safety-entropy increases by the disadjust of Seafarer-Ship-Environment, which always leads to the leap of risk of maritime accident. But the response mechanism is not clear yet. The factors explict/implict that lead to the disadjust of the Seafarer-Ship-Environment system can be quantified through the analysis of maritime accident scene in this project. And the catastrophe model of ship safety-entropy to the disadjust of the system of Seafarer-Ship-Environment can be built, then the numerical experiment can be performed. Based on this, the research of environment reconstruction,accident inversion and abnormal signal detection deduction can be done to test the signal disadjust of Seafarer-Ship-Environment. The catastrophe mechanism of abnormal disadjust signal to the catastrophe of ship safety-entropy can be explored. The response mechanism of the catastrophe of ship safety-entropy to disadjust of Seafarer-Ship-Environment system can be discovered. With the development of this project , the significant relevance theory of the disadjust in the system of Seafarer-Ship-Environment→the catastrophe of ship safety-entropy→the leap of risk in maritime accident can be broke through.

船舶安全熵突变是发生海事事故的前提。船舶安全熵在人-船-环境系统协调发展中保持稳定，安全熵的突变与人-船-环境异常接触异常组合引起的系统失谐密切相关。人-船-环境失谐信号往往隐藏于显式或隐式多因素的耦合，需要挖掘。人-船-环境失谐引起安全熵增加，往往导致海事事故的风险激增，但其响应机理并不清楚。 本项目拟通过对典型水域海事事故的情景分析，将导致人-船-环境系统失谐的显式及隐式因素量化，建立船舶安全熵突变对人-船-环境系统失谐的突变模型，并进行数值试验。在此基础上进行失谐信号的环境重构、事故反演与异常信号检测推演研究，发掘异常失谐信号导致的船舶安全熵的突变区间，揭示船舶安全熵突变对人-船-环境系统失谐的响应机理。项目的开展对取得人-船-环境失谐→船舶安全熵突变→海事事故风险激增之间的关联性理论突破有重要意义 。

船舶安全熵突变是发生海事事故的前提。船舶安全熵在人-船-环境系统协调发展中保持稳定，安全熵的突变与人-船-环境异常接触异常组合引起的系统失谐密切相关。人-船-环境失谐信号往往隐藏于显式或隐式多因素的耦合，需要挖掘。人-船-环境失谐引起安全熵增加，往往导致海事事故的风险激增。.本项目通过对典型水域海事事故的情景分析，将导致人-船-环境系统失谐的显式及隐式因素量化，建立船舶安全熵突变对人-船-环境系统失谐的突变模型，并进行数值试验。在此基础上进行失谐信号的环境重构、事故反演与异常信号检测推演研究，发掘异常失谐信号导致的船舶安全熵的突变区间，揭示船舶安全熵突变对人-船-环境系统失谐的响应机理。项目创建了人-船-环境失谐→船舶安全熵突变→海事事故风险激增之间的关联性理论。