内蒙古呼包鄂地区工业化与生态环境变化的耦合机理及调控模式研究

HuBaoE region Located in the northern frontier of China.Due to the concentration of mineral resources, superiority of regional combination, a significant advantage of location and the balanced matching of industry, the development of industrial economy is rapid. But a strong ecological stress effect on regional ecological system was caused by industrialization and greater pressure was put to the environment which was fragile originally. It has great significance to study on the coupling mechanism and to search for the optimum interactive mechanism between industrialization and ecological environment. And it would be advantageous to achieve "double win" of industrialization and ecological environment. This project will take HuBaoE area as the research object where the process of industrialization is relatively rapid but the ecological environment is sensitive and fragile. The method of qualitative analysis and quantitative evaluation, theory review and empirical research would be used in the project. Through these methods, the industrialization level and the progress, speed, development course of industrialization and ecological environmental problems and ecological security status would be evaluated and analyzed. The interaction effect and action form, correlation degree and regional differences between industrialization and ecological environment would be revealed through empirical research. Based on synergistic theory and the coupling rule of industrialization and ecological environment, the coupling degree model (CDM) of industrialization and ecological environment would be put forward. The space-time distribution of the coupling degrees and the coupling coordination degrees between industrialization and ecological environment in HuBaoE area would be analyzed with CDM. Based on system dynamics theory and method, the model and way of new industrialization which based on water resources and environmental carrying capacity would be constructed. It aims to explore the coupling mechanism and control mode between industrialization and ecological environment, and to provide the basis for coordinated development between industrialization and ecological environment.

呼包鄂地处我国北部边疆，因矿产资源富集、地域组合优良、区位优势显著、产业匹配良好使其工业经济发展迅速，但对区域生态系统造成了强烈的生态胁迫效应，给原本脆弱的生态环境施加了更大的压力。研究工业化与生态环境的耦合机理，探寻二者间的良性互动机制，对实现二者的"双赢"意义重大。本项目以工业化进程迅速而生态环境敏感脆弱的呼包鄂地区为研究对象，采用定性分析与定量评价、理论述评与实证研究相结合的方法，在对其工业化水平及进度、速度、发展历程与生态环境问题、生态安全状况进行动态评价与比较分析的基础上，通过实证研究揭示工业化与生态环境间的互动效应及其表现形式、关联程度与地域差异；运用耦合协调度模型，探究工业化与生态环境耦合协调发展的时空规律与驱动机制；借助系统动力学原理与方法，构建基于水资源与环境容量约束力的新型工业化模式与途径。其旨在探寻工业化与生态环境变化的耦合机制与调控途径，为二者协调发展提供决策依据。

呼和浩特、包头与鄂尔多斯市位于内蒙古中西部，是全国重要的能源基地与生态屏障。凭借优越的资源组合与区位优势，其工业经济发展迅速，已经成为经济发展的主导力量。但其工业化以脆弱的生态环境为背景，工业化进程受到水资源短缺和生态环境恶化的制约，且长期以来传统的工业化模式和资源导向型的开发战略导致了资源过度开发和环境污染加剧，使其工业化进程面临严峻的环境态势。鉴于呼包鄂是我国工业发展和生态建设的双重阵地，而目前对其工业化与生态环境耦合机理与协调发展的基础性研究还较为薄弱，本项研究的开展不仅可辨识该地区工业发展与生态环境变化间的耦合关系，以促使环境质量的良性转变提前发生，还可为建立健康有序的生态机制提供决策参考，具有重要意义与价值。因此，本项目以工业经济增速迅猛而生态环境极端脆弱的内蒙古呼包鄂地区为研究对象，以其工业化水平与生态环境质量及其间的关联效应与耦合作用为研究主线，在对其工业化水平及进度、速度、发展阶段与生态环境质量、生态足迹与生态安全进行动态评价与比较分析的基础上，开展工业化对生态环境的影响机制、生态环境对工业化的响应机理及二者耦合关联的时序规律与演变特征的实证分析；基于不同工业化模式下的生态环境系统动态预警和模拟分析，探寻二者间的良性互动机制与协调发展模式，为构建资源节约型和环境友好型的工业体系提供理论依据。研究表明：1990年以来呼包鄂地区工业化水平不断提升，分别于2005、2006和2007年进入工业化发展的中期阶段；呼包鄂三市综合生态环境质量虽在波动中小幅提升，但人均生态足迹持续增长、生态承载力不断下降，生态压力逐渐加大，包头市与鄂尔多斯市已处于生态不安全状态。呼包鄂地区工业化发展速度明显快于生态环境质量改善速度，工业化进程与生态环境质量间有显著的回归关系，生态环境对工业化的响应形式与响应强度具有阶段性特征；其工业化进程与生态环境质量的关联程度介于中等关联到极密切关联之间，二者的耦合关系处于颉颃时期~磨合阶段。适当降低工业经济增长速度、优化产业结构、加大环境保护与治污力度、强化节水降耗的工业经济发展方式，是实现呼包鄂地区工业化与生态环境良性耦合的首选模式。本项研究成果不仅可为呼包鄂地区有效调控工业经济与生态环境的协调发展提供理论依据，还可为经济发展阶段和生态环境背景相似的广大西部地区发展战略的选择提供借鉴，具有较强的针对性、实用性及一定的推广价值。