基于环境价值的滨海旅游承载力评价理论方法与实证研究

Starting from the complexity of environmental protection and utilization management for coastal tourism area, this research proposal focuses on carrying capacity of coastal tourism based on valuing environmental quality. The primary research content of this research is to define the connotation of carrying capacity of coastal tourism and to address the relationship between various dimensions of tourism carrying capacity as well as to identify their mutual react mechanism among the related indicators. First of all, this study applies the theory of valuing tourism environment from tourists' perceptional point of view, which could lead to three dimensions of carrying capacity of coastal tourism area, including tourist's perception of the natural environmental value, tourism crowding, and tourism managerial economics, following by constructing model for each evaluation indicator. Analysis is made on mutual constraint relationships among various indictors of carrying capacity and their effects on the carrying capacity management of a tourism site. Next, it is proposed to use Dalian, a typical coastal tourism city in northern China, as a pilot study area to carry out a large sample tourist survey using contingent visitation (CV) method to collect data associated with tourist behavior including tourist's demand, crowed perception, tourism expenditure, and managerial economics of the tourism site administration. The gathered data will be used to build various econometric models corresponding to each individual carrying capacity indicator with the purpose of quantifying carrying capacity and identifying those potential important factors. Finally, benefit-cost analysis is conducted to evaluate the impact of coastal environmental protection and tourism development on transformation of economic growth mode in Dalian's economy.

本研究从滨海旅游景区环境保护与利用管理的复杂性出发,以滨海旅游承载力为切入点，以环境价值评价为主线，研究滨海旅游景区承载力的内涵及其各个承载力维度之间的相互联系与作用机理。首先，基于旅游环境经济价值评价理论，从游客对环境价值认知、旅游拥挤体验、旅游管理经济三个维度来界定滨海旅游景区（公园）旅游承载力的评价指标体系，构建各指标下的旅游承载力实证研究模型；分析各个承载力指标之间存在的相互制约关系，以及这种制约关系对滨海旅游承载力管理决策的影响。接下来，以我国北方主要滨海旅游城市，大连滨海旅游地作为试验区，通过对游客进行大样本CV问卷调查，获取旅游者环境质量需求、拥挤体验、旅游花费以及景区管理经济等信息。利用这些信息建立各个维度下的滨海旅游承载力计量经济模型，测算各个承载力指标及其主要影响因素。最后，通过效益－成本分析评价滨海旅游环境保护发展旅游业对大连市转变经济增长方式的影响。

滨海旅游承载力研究，是滨海旅游资源合理保护与有效利用的基础和实现滨海旅游业可持续发展的科学保障。以往的研究多从工程学的视角，进行滨海旅游景区的承载力的估计和测算。虽然，这种方法对滨海旅游景区的承载力管理具有一定参考价值，但是，这一承载力估计的视角忽略了旅游者对滨海旅游环境价值的认知，以及基于这种价值认知的旅游资源的使用效用（utility）。旅游者与旅游环境之间的这种相互作用和依存关系，决定了承载力与环境价值存在着必然的联系。因此，本项目实施坚持以滨海旅游环境价值评价为主线，探究滨海旅游承载力内涵及其各个承载力维度之间的相关联系。研究从理论与实证两个方面展开：1）理论研究：基于环境价值与旅游效用理论，本研究提出了滨海旅游效用临界值的概念。此概念认为，旅游景区承载力是在旅游者考虑了滨海旅游环境价值或旅行成本的条件下，对滨海旅游环境属性接受水平的临界值，该临界值是由旅游边际意愿支付（WTP）等于边际旅行成本（MTC）决定的。2）实证研究：研究从旅游者环境价值认知、旅游体验效用、景区管理经济目标三个层面构建了各维度下的滨海旅游承载力概念框架和指标体系。以大连市付家庄等29个滨海公园和广西涠洲岛旅游区为分析样本，分别运用选择实验法（Choice experiment method），特征价格理论（Hedonic pricing theory）和模糊数学模型等方法估计各种主要环境属性的旅游承载力，包括物理承载力，有效承载力，游客体验承载力，环境要素承载力等。部分分析结果已运用到大连市“付家庄滨海公园海水、海滩保护修复工程”项目的效益—成本分析各种当中。这些研究成果丰富了旅游承载力相关理论，并提供实证研究证明了这些理论的科学性及其应用价值。