中国区域多极增长格局及演进机制研究

Chinese economic development has entered a new normal. The adjustment of regional spatial structure expands the new space of economic development to form a new driver of regional development，which is a major desiderate research strategic issue. Regional multi-poles growth as a new form of regional spatial structure, which role of spatial structure optimization has been proved by the European Spatial Development Perspective. It begins to gradually attract the attention of the national strategic and economic geography research in China. However, compared with the implementation of the strategy of regional multi-poles growth, regional multi-poles theory research is lagging behind. Therefore, this project will research Chinese regional multi-poles growth to study the concept, method of determining and dynamics of regional multi-poles growth based on preliminary study. The project attempts to construct a set of regional multi-poles growth determining index system to study Chinese regional multi-poles growth pattern evolution, to verify multi factor circular causality and spiral evolution mechanism of Chinese regional multi-poles growth by comparing the model analysis with the facts, to propose the comprehensive index of multi-poles growth (RMPI) to evaluate the performance of regional multi-poles growth in order to provide a reference for the strategy of regional development with regional multi-poles growth oriented in new normal.

我国经济发展已经进入了新常态。调整区域空间结构，借此拓展经济发展的新空间，形成新的区域发展动力是一个急需研究的重大战略问题。区域多极增长作为区域空间结构的一种新形式，其对空间结构优化的作用已得到欧盟空间发展规划的认可，在我国也开始逐步受到国家战略和经济地理学研究的重视。但是，与区域多极增长战略的推行相比，区域多极增长的理论研究相对滞后。为此，本项目以中国区域多极增长为研究对象，在前期研究基础上对区域多极增长的概念、判定方法、演变机制等基础性的科学问题进行研究。本项目试图构建一套完善的区域多极增长判定指标体系，将其应用于中国区域多极增长格局演进的考察，并通过模型分析与事实比较，验证中国区域多极增长的多因素循环累积因果关系，以及螺旋式演进动力机制；提出区域多极增长综合指标（RMPI），评估区域多极增长的发展效应，为提出新常态下以区域多极增长为导向的区域发展战略构想提供决策参考。

本项目通过构建区域经济多极增长的理论模型，论证了运输成本、要素禀赋条件、优区位和劣区位的区别对区域经济多极增长的影响，提出了从经济主体与区位匹配视角认识区域的设想，并将理论模型中提出的关于区域空间的认识应用到区域经济发展的分析中。从经济主体与区位相互匹配视角，本项目分析了中国高速铁路开通对经济增长的影响、粤港澳大湾区快速交通网络建设对区域经济格局的影响、香港经济转型等现实经济问题。本项目的研究结果表明，未来中国区域空间结构会向区域经济多极网络化方向演进，同时国家在制定相关政策时必须注意经济主体与区位匹配的影响，创造更加有利于经济主体流动的发展环境。