东南极近岸溢出冰川动力学监测与模拟研究

Because of less understanding of glaciology dynamics and mechanics,it is difficult for us to estimate accurately ice volume discharged into the sea from ice sheet.That's also one of the main factors which influence sea level change forecasting at present.In this proposal, two offshore glaciers named Dalk Glacier and Polar Record Glacier are chosen,the synthetic and systematic monitoring will be performed.Different key parameters will be collected,such as ice flow velocity,ice flow direction,ice thickness,ice surface topography,ice temperature etc.A glaciology dynamics model will be established and modulated.On the basis of the work mentioned above,we will try our best to estimate the ice volume discharged into the sea from the East Antarctica ice sheet,making contribution to evaluating the relationship between the sea level and ice sheet.

全球变化背景下影响准确预估海平面变化的主要因素之一是对极地冰层的动力学过程与机理认识不足，难以准确估算极地冰层排泄入海的冰流量。本项目中，我们选取东南极冰裂隙密布的达尔克冰川和极地记录冰川，通过开展空中、地面协同监测研究，了解冰川物质收支状况及冰裂隙的发育、演化，获取冰川主流线及其两侧不同方位的表面冰流速、流向、冰层厚度、冰川表面形态、冰川温度等关键参数，开展冰川动力学模拟，建立适用于单体冰川的动力学预测模式；在开展冰川模式适用性验证的基础上，进一步筛选、提炼，尝试建立适应于区域尺度的冰川动力学模式，以评估东南极冰盖经由近岸溢出冰川排泄入海的冰流量，为全球变化背景下海平面变化的准确预估提供部分科学依据。