新一轮退耕还林工程的优先区选择研究——以黄土高原区为例

One important issue has to be considered for decision-making is that policy benefits should exceed costs for the new round of China’s Sloping Land Conversion Program, which makes policy decision from famers to government. One of the effective ways to solve the problem is to confirm the priority policy areas based on the limited investment. With the help of cost- benefit theory, the priority selection issue for the areas and farmer will be discussed, who are eligible for the Program and also have willingness to respond. Firstly, government cost and farmer’s WTA will be calculated by the opportunity cost method and choice experiment method. Secondly, the ecological benefits of the program described by regional ecological frangibility will be assessed, which including resource endowment, natural conditions, ecological pressure and ecological environment. Thirdly, the evaluation index system of the priority areas of the program will be established, including the program cost, ecological benefits and the social cognition for the program. And the importance weights of the index will be calculated by the method of maximum entropy configuration model of objective index weight based on grey correlation deep coefficient. Finally, the priority of the Loess Plateau case areas will be calculated based on TOPSIS method. The optimal allocation of the government investment will be determined by using linear programming method. This study is theoretically significant for selecting the priority areas and determining the investment allocation of the sloping land conversion program and practically meaningful for promoting the cost effectiveness of the Sloping Land Conversion Program.

“自下而上、上下结合”的新一轮退耕还林实施模式下，如何实现政策收益大于政策成本是决策部门须考虑的重要问题。而资金有限前提下，对退耕还林区进行优先性排序是解决该问题有效途径之一。本项目以成本-效益理论为基础，对符合工程政策条件且有参与意愿的区域和农户的优先选择问题进行讨论。首先，采用机会成本法核算政府工程成本和选择实验法计算农户工程受偿意愿；其次，基于生态脆弱性视角从资源禀赋、自然条件、生态压力和生态环境等方面对退耕还林生态效益进行评估；再次，从退耕还林成本、生态效益以及农户社会认知等方面构建退耕还林优先区综合评价指标体系，并采用基于灰关联深度系数的极大熵配置模型确定各指标权重；最后，采用TOPSIS方法对黄土高原区案例县进行优先排序，并采用线性规划方法求解政府财政投资的最佳分配方案。该研究可为新一轮退耕还林工程优先区选择和资金分配方案的确定提供借鉴思路，对提升工程投资效率具有重要现实意义。

“自下而上、上下结合”的新一轮退耕还林实施模式下，如何实现政策收益大于政策成本是决策部门需考虑的重要问题。而资金优先前提下，对退耕还林区进行优先性排序是解决该问题有效途径之一。.本项目以成本-收益理论为基础，对符合工程政策条件且有参与意愿的区域和农户的优先选择问题进行了讨论。首先，基于竞租理论，对退耕还林工程决策集进行分析比较，以农户收益最大确定政府财政支出最小为目标确定退耕还林成本。第二，分别从宏中微观层面，采用统计数据和实地调研数据，对陕西省退耕还林补偿资金分配效率进行了比较分析。第三，基于比较优势理论构建了农户参与生态修复工程的驱动机理分析框架及模型，分析了吴起县农户参与生态修复工程的驱动因素及其动态演化过程。第四，以陕西省5个退耕县为例，考虑不同地区土地质量的差异及农户意愿，以效率和公平为目标，建立退耕还林补偿资金优化配置模型，确定补偿资金分配方案并进行优化前后比较分析。第五，以镇巴县退耕还林工程净收益（生态效益-补偿支出）最大为目标，考虑农户退耕还林机会成本，结合农户的技术等级，建立镇巴县退耕还林补偿标准优化模型并进行比较分析。最后，从农户和政府视角，分别提出了提升新一轮退耕还林工程资金使用效率的相关政策建议。结果表明：黄土高原区退耕还林补偿标准相对偏低，资金分配效率不高，相同数额补偿资金获得的收益存在显著差异。林地与耕地收入差值、转换成本和劳动量差值成为当前农户参与退耕还林工程的主要驱动因素。无论是省级层面还是县域层面，新的退耕还林资金分配方案均可显著提升资金使用效率，带来更大工程收益。