暴时电离层总电子含量的现报预报方法及建模研究

In the current study, the variation patterns, response characteristics, and the morphological features of storm-time ionospheric TEC will be investigated on the basis of statistical analysis of long-term measurements from dense GNSS networks and multi-source ionospheric observations. The physical mechanisms, dynamic processes, and the effective impact factors that drive storm-time TEC responses will be studied by utilizing both empirical and theoretical models. Also developed will be the optimization procedures for short-time forecasting and quasi real-time nowcasting of TEC. Finally, an ionospheric forecasting and nowcasting model of storm-time TEC for China and adjacent regions will be established to reflect both real observations and the inherent physical processes. This high-precision and resolution model is expected to meet the needs of space weather operational services, which can also be used to provide accurate, timely, and reliable ionospheric error-correction information for satellite navigation, radar imaging, short-wave communication, and other space weather applications.

本项目将利用高密度全球导航卫星系统（GNSS）台网的长期监测资料和电离层多源观测数据，对暴时电离层总电子含量（TEC）的变化规律、响应特点、形态特征进行统计分析；结合经验模式和理论模式探讨暴时TEC响应的物理机制、动力学过程、和有效驱动因子，对电离层准实时现报和短期预报的方法进行研究优化；面向中国及周边区域，建立既包含内在物理过程，又反映真实观测，同时满足空间天气业务需求的暴时电离层TEC区域现报预报模型，为卫星导航、雷达成像、短波通信等应用提供准确、及时、可靠的高精度高分辨率电离层误差修正信息。

地磁暴期间电离层受到太阳风和地磁扰动作用，呈现出复杂的天气学变化，会对卫星导航、雷达成像、短波通信等涉及电波传播和电磁环境的技术手段产生严重影响。电离层总电子含量（TEC）是描述电离层形态与结构的重要参量之一；分析电离层暴时形态、研究电离层扰动特性、消除电离层延迟误差，亟需准确、及时、可靠的电离层TEC时空分布和变化特征的监测、现报、预报信息。. 本项目对暴时电离层TEC的变化特性、响应特点、形态特征进行了详细分析；对暴时TEC的物理机制和动力学过程进行深入研究，对TEC准实时现报和短期预报方法进行研究优化；构建了电离层暴时TEC经验修正模型；针对中国及周边区域，开发了电离层空间环境TEC现报系统。 . 该研究成果可为卫星导航、雷达成像、短波通信等科学研究和工程应用提供相对准确、可靠的电离层暴时TEC和误差修正信息，为电离层空间环境现报预报提供多维度、多参量的精确现报预报产品，能够有力保障我军民各项信息装备的效能发挥和安全运行，具有重要的科学意义和工程应用价值。