考虑异质性因素影响的电力系统环境成本效率改进策略研究

China is vigorously promoting clean energy development and electricity market reform. It is not only the premise of energy conservation and emission reduction, but also an urgent issue for development planning and relevant policy reforms to scientifically evaluate the impacts of heterogeneity factors such as generation structure, climate and geographical conditions on power sector. This project mainly employs Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) to conduct the study. First, it constructs an environmental cost efficiency evaluation model which has comprehensively considered the influence of heterogeneity, undesirable outputs and the economic appeals of the decision-making units. Second, it explores the approach which can combine the advantages of nonparametric and parametric methods to unbundle the influence of heterogeneity factors. The proposed approach will also be employed to test the importance of service quality to the cost efficiency of transmission and distribution sectors. Finally, it investigates the influence of the power mix and management mechanism on the environmental cost efficiency of the power system combining with game theory, and establishes a comprehensive index system for efficiency evaluation on generation sector, grids and the integrated power system. This study could provide strategic suggestions for exploring the interactional mechanism of carbon emissions, economic benefits, service quality and management system, and model selection options to separate the impacts of heterogeneity under different research objectives. These results can help to analyze the effectiveness of previous policy reforms. They also contribute to put forward the improvement strategies to enhance the operation efficiency of power systems, and decrease the effect of heterogeneity. Furthermore, the findings of this study may also provide decision supports for exploring the possible policy reforms of the power system.

我国正大力推进清洁能源发展和电力市场化改革，科学分析电源结构、天气、地理环境等异质性因素对电力系统的影响，是电力行业开展节能减排工作的前提，也是制定行业发展规划，进行相关政策改革亟待研究的问题。本项目采用数据包络分析和随机前沿分析等方法，①构建既考虑碳排放等非理想产出和异质性因素影响，又反映决策主体经济效益诉求的环境成本效率评价模型；②融合两种方法特长，探索分离异质性因素影响的新方法，验证服务质量等指标对输配部门成本效率研究的重要性；③结合博弈论等方法研究电源结构与管理体制对环境成本效率的影响，形成发电、电网以及电力系统效率评价指标体系。研究成果可为揭示碳排放、经济效益、服务质量及经营体制间的影响机理，提出不同研究目的下的模型方案选择，提供策略建议；亦可用于以往政策改革效果分析，进而提出各决策主体减少异质性因素影响、提高环境成本效率的改进策略；还能为探索电力体制改革新方向提供决策技术支持。

提高电力部门的生产效率是减少能源消耗和环境污染最为有效的方式之一。在考虑电源结构、地理环境、天气、技术水平等异质性因素的前提下，科学评价电力系统环境效率，通过管理体制优化和发展策略调整，减小清洁转型对经济发展的影响成为亟待研究的重要科学问题。.课题首先在考虑异质性因素的前提下研究发电部门环境效率改进策略。将非理想产出纳入评价体系，假设其满足半可处置性，采用DEA等方法研究电厂或地区发电部门的环境效率；采用投入产出模型的结构分解分析方法，设计多种情景研究电源结构变化和征收碳税的影响；采用动态DEA模型计算清洁能源发电企业和电厂的效率值；以DEA模型为基础，结合基于共同前沿的自助法方向距离函数、半可处置性假设、博弈交叉效率模型和Malmquist指数等方法，研究电力企业的动态环境效率，探讨提升发电部门环境效率的路径和可行性。.其次，研究异质性因素对输配部门效率的影响机理。采用混合互补均衡分析研究特高压输电线路建设对清洁电力调度和碳减排的影响，从电力调度、碳排放和生产者剩余等方面评估特高压线路的分配效应；采用基于异质性真实固定效应随机前沿模型的参数化Malmquist指数对电网公司技术效率和全要素生产率进行评估，构建改革指数和改革实施指数研究市场化改革政策的实施效果；结合清洁能源补贴和市场化改革等政策的实施效果，提出电网优化以及技术效率提高的建议，运用机制设计手段，比较上网电价补贴、配额及其组合策略对可再生能源发电的激励作用。.最后，课题融合参数与非参数方法研究电力系统及其子部门的效率变化，汇总得出分离异质性因素影响的理论方法体系；借鉴机制设计与情景分析的研究思路，构建随机动态规划模型，研究清洁能源发展的优化路径，设计政策激励机制。课题还将研究拓展至建筑行业和高耗能行业，研究典型行业的减排潜力及影响减排目标实现的因素。这些工作都能够为主管部门优化清洁能源发展激励政策，提出重点行业节能减排优化策略提供决策技术支持和策略分析工具。