巴颜喀拉块体强震丛集活动特征与发生模式研究

After collecting the slip behavior of the faults, historical earthquake and paleo-earthquake data around the Bayan Har block, we analysis the characteristic of strong earthquakes clustering around the block. Also we will inverse the slip rate and locking depth of the boundary faults using the GPS data and fault parameters, to calculate the accumulation and release of the seismic moment and to judge the seismic hazard of the segments with no rupture records. Then, with the relocation of mainshocks and their aftershocks, we will analysis how the strong mainshocks with different rupture type dominate the distribution of aftershocks, and giving the tectonic pattern of them. After that, Using the fault segmentation data and rupture parameters, we will calculate the coseismic and postseismic coulomb stress changes of the strong earthquakes around the Bayan Har block using the layered spherical model and transfer the coulomb stress changes to energy accumulation time to discuss whether the intraplate earthquakes around the whole Bayan Har block have the pattern with temporal clustering and migration as a whole, also the role of earthquake interactions in the pattern. Finally, we will discuss the strong earthquake occurrence pattern of whole active Bayan Har block with the active tectonic background from the slip characters of the active faults and GPS data.

通过搜集整理巴颜喀拉块体周缘断裂活动、历史地震和古地震资料，分析巴颜喀拉块体强震丛集活动特征,并利用GPS资料和断裂活动参数反演断裂的滑动速率和闭锁深度及计算周缘各断层段能量积累与亏损情况，判定尚未破裂断层段的潜在危险性；根据余震精定位资料和主震震源机制解来分析巴颜喀拉周缘不同错动类型主震对余震分布模式的影响，结合区域断裂活动资料给出强震与余震发生的模式；根据破裂分段特征和破裂参数，利用球形分层模型计算各次强震之间的同震和震后库仑应力作用，将库仑应力改变量转换为影响时间，探讨整个块体周缘强震是否存在着丛集和整体迁移的模式以及强震之间相互影响在这一模式中的作用；结合GPS和活动断裂资料给出的块体活动特征，探讨在板内块体周缘强震发生的整体发生模式。

通过搜集整理巴颜喀拉块体周缘断裂活动、历史地震和古地震资料，分析巴颜喀拉块体强震丛集活动特征,并利用GPS资料和断裂分段资料对巴颜喀拉块体两种模型进行了分析，认为巴颜喀拉块体运动可能并不包括玛尔盖茶卡断裂以西地区。根据余震精定位资料和主震震源机制解来分析巴颜喀拉周缘不同错动类型主震对余震分布模式的影响，结合区域断裂活动资料给出2014年鲁甸6.5级和2014年康定6.3级强震与余震发生的模式、2017年九寨沟7.0级地震与周边地震之间相互作用情况；根据破裂分段特征和破裂参数，利用黏弹性模型计算各次强震之间的同震和震后库仑应力作用，将库仑应力改变量转换为影响时间，探讨了整个块体周缘强震是否存在着丛集和整体迁移的模式以及强震之间相互影响在这一模式中的作用，认为巴颜喀拉块体自1893年以来存在着早期16年左右的准周期强震活动，和1997年以来的丛集活动，并以此探讨板内块体周缘强震的整体发生模式。