沿海城市适应极端台风风暴潮灾害的应急疏散预案研究

In the context of climate change, sea level rise and land subsidence, the frequency and intensity of extreme storm surge disasters tend to increase.Protection of life and property in coastal cities has become the focus of global disaster risk management. Due to the limited.monitoring/forecasting technology and structure measures, the construction of regional extreme disaster scenarios and dynamic emergency evacuation strategy has greatly raised the awareness of academic researchers and desicion makers in the field of disaster emergency management.Based on the investigation of typical storm surge disasters affected China coastal areas in recent years, this project will explore the Driving force-Presure-State-Response (DPSR) mechanism of storm surge disaster risk system, and then build combined disaster scenarios by considering time, space and intensity to simulate the disaster processes, and finally establish a network of flood control asylum disaster scenarios and emergency evacuation simulation system. Within the above proposed methodology, some coastal districts in Shanghai will be used as the study areas to simulate the dynamics of storm surge-overbanking-levee breach under different scenarios, and the spatial distribution of flood protection for asylum will further be assessed and optimized. Moreover, we will predict population emergency evacuation demands under different scenarios, simulate emergency evacuation processed of the affected population, and optimize the emergency evacuation strategy. This project can enrich and develop the theory, method and empirical study of disaster risk prevention and emergency response research for China’s coastal cities.

在气候变化、海平面上升和地面沉降等因素驱动下，极端台风风暴潮灾害呈现频发态势，沿海城市人民生命财产安全已成为全球灾害风险防范重点。在监测预报技术和工程防御措施有限的条件下，如何科学构建区域极端灾害情景以及动态调控应急疏散策略是当前灾害应急管理研究领域亟待突破的问题。本研究在对近年来我国沿海城市典型台风风暴潮灾害事件剖析基础上，探索台风风暴潮灾害风险系统的驱动力-压力-状态-响应机制，构建以时间、空间、强度为要素的灾害复合情景，模拟不同情景下灾害扩散过程，建立灾害情景下的防洪避难网络和人群应急疏散模拟仿真系统；选择上海市为研究区，开展不同复合情景下台风风暴潮灾害增水-漫堤-溃堤水动力过程模拟，评估并优化研究区防洪避难空间布局，预测不同灾害情景下应急疏散需求，模拟受灾人群的应急疏散过程，优化应急疏散策略，以充实和发展沿海城市灾害风险防范和应急响应研究的理论、方法和案例库。

全球突发性自然-人为复合灾害事件日渐频繁，造成严重的生态环境破坏和人员伤亡，如何构建科学合理的防灾减灾体系已成为全球、国家和区域可持续发展进程中共同面临的科学难题。沿海地区因人口聚集、经济发达和气象灾害频发成为当前防灾减灾的重点区域。区域海平面的上升，叠加城市化过程中负面因素的干扰，促使沿海地区孕灾环境的加速演变，承灾系统抗灾能力下降。在监测预警技术和应急响应能力仍滞后的背景下，加强灾害情景模拟、风险评估与应急响应的集成研究将有助于沿海地区科学有效地应对各类突发性灾害事件。本项目紧密结合沿海地区应对极端台风风暴潮灾害的迫切需求，基于区域台风风暴潮灾害风险系统的驱动力-压力-状态-响应（DPSR）作用机制，提出构建集灾害复合情景模拟、灾害风险区划与预警、应急疏散模拟为一体的防灾应急避难理论与方法体系，并以上海为例开展实证研究。研究成果旨在为上海等沿海城市防灾应急疏散预案编制提供理论和技术支撑。基于理论方法和工具集，以上海为例开展了区域台风风暴潮灾害的复合情景模拟与应急避难研究，结果表明，现今至2030年上海地区主要验潮站潮位增长速率为2-3mm/a，年均地面沉降速率约为2mm/a，区域相对海平面上升趋势明显，孕灾环境加速演变；现有海堤工程面临着1000年一遇台风风暴潮威胁，浦东和金山地区海堤存在4个高风险溃堤断面，亟需加强工程防御和应急体系建设；复合情景2010_P3_K1模拟结果显示，金山区受灾范围为金山卫镇、山阳镇和石化街道，避难人口为150994人，采取应急区划和分阶段疏散模拟，完成整体疏散共需46.02分钟，灾害风险区划与应急避难分析工具集对于应急疏散预案的动态、可视化编制具有重要的辅助决策作用。