基于信息不对称和行为偏好双重视角下的供应链决策与协调研究

Recently, researchers have begun to pay increasing attention to the influence of external environment and internal environment on supply chain operation. They focus on how asymmetric information and behavioral preferences influence the supply chain performance respectively. However, current literature has not given any consideration to the influence of asymmetric information and behavioral preferences simultaneously on supply chain decision making. Therefore, our proposal will research how to make better decisions and coordinate the supply chain with asymmetric information and behavioral preferences. The main contents are：（1） supply chain coordination in the context of single, dual and multilateral asymmetric information. (2) constructing an optimal decision making model considering behavioral preferences of decision-makers in the context of asymmetric information.(3) supply chain decision making and coordination mechanism design in the context of asymmetric information regarding demand information, various cost information and behavioral preference information. First, we will research supply chain coordination in the context of single and multilateral asymmetric information regarding product cost, promotional effort cost and forecasting cost. Secondly, by incorporating such behavioral factors as risk bias, fairness concern and overconfidence into the asymmetric information of the supply chain, we will explore the influence of asymmetric information and behavioral preferences on supply chain decision-making so as to reveal true information through contract design to modify the behavior of decision-makers, reduce the negative impact of asymmetric information and behavioral preferences on the supply chain and enhance the overall efficiency of the supply chain. It is hoped that a new decision-making theory considering behavioral preferences in the context of asymmetric information in supply chain will provide enterprises with a widely applicable operation solution in a very complex environment.

供应链管理研究越来越关注外部环境和内生环境对供应链决策的影响，但无论是信息不对称还是行为因素，已有的研究都未同时考虑二者对供应链决策的影响。本项目将基于信息不对称和主体行为偏好双重视角下研究供应链决策和协调问题。内容包括：1）单边、双边和多边信息不对称下供应链协调；2）信息不对称下考虑主体行为偏好的供应链优化决策；3）需求、多种成本信息与行为偏好信息双边不对称下供应链决策和协调机制设计。首先研究生产成本、促销成本、信息预测成本等多种成本信息单边、多边不对称下供应链协调问题。然后将风险偏好、公平关切和过度自信等行为因素考虑到信息不对称的供应链中，研究信息不对称和行为偏好对供应链决策的影响。通过契约设计揭露真实信息并引导决策者行为，减小二者对供应链非效率的影响，提高供应链整体效益。项目成果将探索一套信息不对称下考虑行为偏好的决策科学理论，为企业在复杂环境下运营优化提供更广阔的解决方案。

本项目采用理论模型分析与数值模拟相结合的方法，研究了信息不对称和主体行为偏好双重因素影响下的供应链决策和协调问题。1）生产成本信息不对称下供应链协调。研究了生产成本不对称对销售商的采购、库存和收益所产生的具体影响，建立随机需求下报童订货模型，基于委托代理理论设计契约，实现供应链协调。2）促销努力成本信息不对称下供应链协调。当促销努力成本为私人信息时，通过委托代理理论和信息甄别模型，发现由于信息不对称和促销激励不足，供应链非效率损耗较高。在回购契约上引入成本共担和转移支付，通过对契约的参数设置，发现在一定条件下能实现供应链协调。3）信息预测成本不对称下风险厌恶零售商的供应链协调。当需求信息预测成本是零售商私有信息时，零售商为了得到充足的货源，有动机谎报信息预测成本。导致对需求信息的预测投入偏离最优决策。特别当零售商为风险规避时，风险规避程度会加重这种偏离。为了降低双重因素对供应链非效率的影响，设计了一个由回购契约和支付方案组成的联合契约。支付方案使得零售商必须为谎报虚假信息产生的需求估计偏差支付一定费用，联合契约在揭示信息预测成本的同时消除风险规避对最优决策的影响，实现供应链协调。4）需求与成本信息不对称下装配系统多对一协调。在模糊需求和模糊成本环境下，加工装配供应链中多个供应商向单个制造商供货。建立了供应链分散决策模型、集中决策模型以及联合契约模型,并给出了各个模型下的最优决策。联合契约可实现多个供应商之间的横向协同和供应商与制造商之间的纵向协同。5）促销努力成本信息不对称下风险厌恶零售商的生鲜供应链协调。在生鲜供应链中，当促销努力成本信息是零售商的私有信息并且零售商为风险规避时，零售商的风险态度与信息不对称都会加重供应链非效率的影响。设计了由成本共担与收益共享形成的组合契约，减小信息租金和风险规避对最优决策的影响。