中小学校园气象灾害恢复力多维评估体系与综合减灾模式

A quantitative evaluation system of disaster resilience considering many factors has important significance to reduce disaster losses on campus. Take the heavy rain, flooding and landslides and debris flow as hazards, and the primary and secondary schools in ChuxiongZhou of Yunnan as the research areas, three time dimension (pre-disaster mitigation actions, disaster emergency resilience, post-disaster inherent resilience and adaptive resilience), five spatial dimension (physical environment, human resources, organization and management, external relations and natural conditions) were presented considering the comprehensive sustainability into the social, economic and natural environment. Through the study of the dynamic process of formation, increase or decrease of disaster resilience, the multi dimensional disaster resilience mechanism in campus was explored. A quantitative multi dimensional evaluation system of disaster resilience was built based on the representative parameters and variable in accordance with local context. A dynamic model of disaster resilience in campus was also presented by applying mathematical model and method of system dynamics based on determining the main interference factors. The integrated disaster reduction mode of high resilience in campus was constructed by screening and selection of management policy through disaster scenario simulation technology. This study aims to provide scientific basis for the enhancement of multi-dimensional adaptability of education to the sudden meteorological disaster, as well as promote integrated disaster risk management of education department.

综合多方面因素，构建一个可以全面促进灾害恢复力定量化评估的技术与方法体系对减轻校园灾害损失具有重要意义。以暴雨、洪水以及滑坡泥石流为致灾因子，云南楚雄州中小学为研究对象，综合考虑社会、经济和自然环境的可持续性，基于3个时间维（灾前缓解行为、灾中应急恢复力、灾后内在恢复力与适应恢复力）、5个空间维（物理环境、人力资源、组织管理、外部关系和自然条件），通过研究不同维度相互作用而共同构成的恢复力形成、增强或减弱的动力学过程，探索校园灾害多维恢复机制；对应不同维度，选择影响恢复力和符合当地背景的代表性参数及变量，构建恢复力多维评估指标体系；在确定主要干扰因子的基础上，采用数学模型和系统动力学方法，建立校园灾害恢复动力学模型；通过修改参数进行多情景仿真模拟，甄别筛选管理政策，构建具有高恢复能力的校园综合减灾模式。为增强教育工作者对突发性气象灾害的多维适应性、推进教育部门综合灾害风险管理提供科学依据。

以云南楚雄州的中小学校为研究对象，以常威胁当地中小学校园的暴雨、洪水以及滑坡泥石流灾害为致灾因子，开展了可以促进校园灾害恢复力与风险定量化评估技术与方法体系的综合研究。在明晰校园气象灾害恢复性概念的内涵和外延的基础上，综合考虑社会、经济和自然环境等三方面的可持续性，构建了校园灾害恢复力多维概念模型，确定了“维度-参数-变量”的指标分级结构体系。对应物理设施、人力资源、组织管理、外部关系和环境条件等五个空间维、以及灾前、灾中、灾后三个时间维，分别选择影响校园灾害恢复力和符合当地教育部门背景的代表性参数及变量，构建了校园灾害恢复力评估指标体系及其分类分级标准。运用分布式水文机理模型对暴雨、洪涝灾害风险开展模拟分析，量化评估了气候变化与人类活动加剧下暴雨洪涝灾害风险。采用系统动力学模型结合数学模型等多种技术和方法，量化了恢复力与多维影响因子之间的因果关系，揭示了校园灾害危险性、脆弱性、稳定性、恢复性以及综合风险的变化特征，构建了校园灾害恢复力评估模型并对楚雄校园恢复力及综合风险进行了系统评估。在此基础上，识别中小学校园在灾害来临、灾害发生时或灾害发生后哪些环节最易受灾、从而确定在帮助学校快速恢复到初始状态过程中哪些资源比较重要，并提出校园恢复力管理模式及政策建议。截至2017年12月31日，共发表研究论文18篇，其中SCI / SSCI期刊论文11篇。完成硕士学位论文5篇。本项目丰富和完善了区域灾害系统理论，促进了灾害恢复力的定量化研究，为区域提升灾害恢复性与综合风险防范能力提供了技术支持与实践案例。