旅游打包的协调策略及动态调度研究

This project does research on coordination strategy and dynamic scheduling of tourism packaging. By game theory, probability theory and optimal control theory, establish the game model of the service providers involved in tourism packaging under a coordination strategy, and conduce the optimal parameters and the conditions on which the coordination strategy is effective. By principal agent theory, establish the coordination model of tourism packaging under asymmetric information, probe the effect of information asymmetry on the behaviors of the participants in tourism packaging. Based on Aggregate Models or Models of Individual Customer Behavior, build the gmae model of the participants in advertising under a coordination strategy, analyze the effect of the strategy on advertising effectiveness, cost allocation, revenue sharing, etc. Through building multi-channel tourism package retailing model, explore how a coordination strategy alleviates channel conflict, and analyze the effects of the marketing strategy of the third party website on coordination result. By stochastic programming, multi objective programming and ATC (Analytical Target Cascading), structure service scheduling model of tourism packaging in centralized or decentralized environment, and design its algorithm. This research will make a contribution to tourism supply chain theory, and provide a useful reference for China tourism industry to improve its competitiveness.

本项目研究旅游打包的协调策略及动态调度。根据不同的协调策略，通过博弈论、概率论和最优控制理论，建立旅游打包中服务提供商的博弈模型，分析各种协调策略起作用的条件以及最优参数。运用委托代理理论，建立非对称信息时旅游打包的协调模型，分析信息的非对称性对打包参与者行为的影响。基于集成模型或个体消费行为模型，建立在各协调策略下旅游打包广告参与者的博弈模型，分析各协调策略对广告效果、广告成本分摊、收益分配等的影响。建立旅游打包的多渠道销售模型，探讨协调策略对减少渠道冲突的作用，分析第三方网站的销售策略对协调结果的影响。通过随机规划、多目标规划和分析级联法（Analytical Target Cascading），建立在集中式和非集中式决策时旅游打包的服务调度模型，并设计算法。本项目的研究不但能够丰富旅游供应链理论，而且能够为我国旅游业提高竞争力提供有益的参考。

本项目研究了（1）在多渠道销售旅游打包时旅游供应链成员间协调策略，通过建立旅游打包的博弈模型，分析了各种协调策略起作用的条件以及最优参数；（2）返现销售策略下OTA和酒店的最优合作方式，通过建立数学模型，证明基于收益共享的折扣契约能够消除竞争、协调在线供应链成员，发现酒店和OTA的深度协同对于提高双方的收益是非常重要的；（3）OTA与酒店合作中的超订策略，证明了超订策略能增加利润，研究结果表明：被拒顾客的补偿系数对于酒店的定价策略影响甚微，而对超订水平的影响很大；（4）房间可得到性的算法，即酒店确定是否再提供房间给OTA，和使用在线预订系统时基于市场细分的优化定价算法，使酒店的利润最大化。本项目所研究的问题都来源于旅游服务实践，研究成果不但能够丰富旅游供应链理论，对实践中的旅游供应链成员间合作与协调、减低服务成本和提高游客的满意度有借鉴意义。