指挥控制信息物理融合系统可信性演化动力学机理及控制方法研究

As cyber-physical systems (CPS) are mainly used in safety-critical fields, CPS must be trustworthy. Command and control systems are a typical kind of cyber-physical systems, which are called command and control CPS (C3PS). C3PS may be probably most vulnerable to cyber attacks in the adverse battlefield. Once C3PS fail, severe outages may involve occupational safety or equipment damage. Development of the trustworthy C3PS is critical to assure the safety and effectiveness of C3PS. The C3PS trustworthiness evolves continuously in the dynamic and complex environment owing to cyber attacks. Therefore it is difficult to forecast and control behaviors of C3PS. To investigate and develop the trustworthy C3PS, the nonlinear dynamical theory and methods are introduced into the research on C3PS trustworthiness evolution laws and control methods. Generalized stochastic Petri nets are utilized to quantitatively evaluate the C3PS trustworthiness, the malicious software spreading dynamics in C3PS is studied by using the nonlinear dynamical theory, and then the C3PS trustworthiness evolution dynamical model is proposed. The dynamical mechanism of the C3PS trustworthiness evolution is revealed by analyzing the existence and stability of the equilibriums, and deducing the bifurcations in the proposed dynamical model. To control the adverse bifurcation behaviors in the proposed dynamical model, a hybrid bifurcation control method is presented. Consequently C3PS can be stabilized, controlled and expected during the evolution. The proposed approaches and models can be employed to the other CPSs. We can study their trustworthiness evaluation, distributed computing and control theory. The prospective achievements of this project will provide new ideas and new methods for the C3PS trustworthiness evolution, and have a very important theory significance and practical values for the active defense of C3PS.

信息物理融合系统(Cyber-Physical Systems, CPS)主要应用于安全关键领域，对系统可信性要求较高。指挥控制系统是一个典型的信息物理融合系统，称为指控CPS，生存环境恶劣，易遭受网络攻击，发生各种故障或失效，给国防安全和生命财产带来巨大损失。由于指控CPS所处环境的动态性和复杂性，其可信性不断演化，导致系统行为难以预期和控制。本项目以构建可信指控CPS为研究目标，采用非线性动力学理论研究指控CPS可信性演化规律与控制方法。利用广义随机Petri网研究指控CPS可信性度量方法，并研究恶意软件在指控CPS中的传播机制，建立指控CPS可信性演化动力学模型；通过分析所建模型中平衡点的存在性和稳定性，以及分岔等动力学行为，揭示指控CPS可信性演化机理；提出一种混合分岔控制方法对不利分岔进行控制，使指控CPS在演化过程中处于稳定、可控和可预期的状态；将以上方法与模型应用到CPS其他应用领域，研究其可信性评估、分布式计算和控制理论与方法。本项目预期成果将为指控CPS可信性演化研究提供新思路和新方法，对于提升其主动防御能力具有重要的理论意义和实用价值，同时可以推广应用到其他领域。

指挥控制系统是一个典型的信息物理融合系统(Cyber-Physical Systems, CPS)，称为指控CPS。指控CPS作为安全关键系统，生存环境恶劣，容易遭受干扰、攻击或恶意代码侵蚀，从而发生各种故障或失效，给国防安全和生命财产等方面带来巨大损失。因此，我们必须提高指控CPS可信性，增强对未知安全威胁的主动防御能力。.本项目以构建可信指控CPS为研究目标，采用非线性动力学理论，突破指控CPS可信性度量、可信性演化动力学建模、动力学行为分析、分岔控制方法等研究内容中的关键科学问题，揭示指控CPS可信性演化的基本规律，提出较为系统的指控CPS可信性演化动力学理论。.本项目完成的工作主要包括以下几方面：.(1) 指控信息物理融合系统可信性度量方法研究。研究了指控CPS可信性的概念及其主要属性，建立了指控CPS可信性度量模型；利用广义随机Petri网对指控CPS进行建模，计算各状态瞬时和稳态概率，从而求出各属性值，并根据所建可信性度量模型求出指控CPS可信性度量结果。.(2) 指控信息物理融合系统可信性演化非线性动力学建模。以非线性动力学理论为基础，根据指控CPS特点，研究了恶意软件在指控CPS中的实际传播规律，分析指控CPS中各状态节点对系统可信性的影响，建立了指控CPS可信性演化动力学模型。.(3) 指控信息物理融合系统可信性演化动力学行为分析。研究了所建动力学模型中平衡点的存在性及局部、全局稳定性；研究了指控CPS可信性演化过程中将会出现的分岔现象，以及分岔的性质，从而分析了指控CPS可信性的动态行为突变。.(4) 指控信息物理融合系统可信性演化分岔控制方法。为了有效地消除或延迟演化中出现的不利分岔，为系统制定适当的主动防御策略，提出了一种混合分岔控制方法，改变了指控CPS的分岔特性，使之产生期望的动态行为。.通过本项目的研究，在理论上将诠释指控CPS可信性演化的动力学机理，在实践上将对指控CPS可信性进行定量评估，并控制和消除指控CPS异常行为，从而达到指控CPS可控、可预期的目标。