通货膨胀持续性、最优货币政策与通货膨胀目标制

Persistence (initia or stickiness)is one of important dynamic properties of inflation.The more persistent the inflation , the longer it takes to impact on real economy,the higher the cost of reducing inflation for monetary authority. Therefore, for the purpose of price stablility and improvement of monetary policy effectiveness, it is very significant to conduct in-depth research of inflation persistence. With the development of market economy and economic globalization, China's inflation dynamics become more complicated and it attracts more attention. This project aims at conducting the comprehensive study of general dynamics about inflation persistence and monetary policy with various DSGE models and econometric methods. First, the time-varying characteristics of inflation persistence in aggregate level and disaggregate level are analyzed comparatively with different econometric methods.These methods include grid bootstrap,unknown-breakpoint test and dynamic factor model. Second, sources of inflation persistence are explored and optimal monetary policy is analyzed.The sources of inflation persistence include extrinsic persistence, intrinsic persistence and expectation-based persistence. By establishing a dynamic stachostic general equilibrium model which includes central bank's objective loss function, New Keysian aggregate supply equation, IS aggregate demand equation and Taylor interest rate rule, the optimal monetary policy in the context of discretion and commitment is deeply explored. Third,inflation targeting regime is examined with consideration of inflation persistence.Suggestions about introducing inflation targeting framework to China gradually is also provided.

持续性（惯性、粘性）是通货膨胀的重要动态性质。持续性水平越高，对实体经济造成冲击的持续时间越长，利用货币政策降低通胀代价就越大。因此，深入研究通胀持续性，对于央行全面把握通胀动态机制，稳定物价，提高货币政策运营效率具有重要意义。 本项目旨在以层层推进的动态随机一般均衡模型和多种复杂计量方法对通胀持续性与货币政策的总体动态进行综合研究。首先，对中国通货膨胀持续性，从总量CPI和分类CPI两个视角进行测度，并进行结构突变检验和动态因子模型分析，系统分析其动态时变特征。其次，构建DSGE模型来识别中国通胀持续性来源， 具体考察外生持续性、内生持续性、以通胀预期为基础的持续性对中国通胀动态的影响。再次，进一步将货币政策区分为相机抉择和承诺规则类型，通过DSGE模型的系统分析来比较这两种类型货币政策下的通胀动态反应。最后，构建持续性与通胀目标制的DSGE模型并探讨中国渐进导入通胀目标制问题。

持续性是通货膨胀的重要动态性质。持续性水平越高，对实体经济造成冲击的持续时间越长，利用货币政策降低通胀代价就越大。因此，深入研究通胀持续性，对于央行全面把握通胀动态机制，稳定物价，提高货币政策运营效率具有重要意义。. 本项目以层层推进的动态随机一般均衡模型和多种复杂计量方法对通胀持续性与货币政策的总体动态进行了综合研究。首先，对中国通货膨胀持续性，从总量CPI和分类CPI两个视角进行测度，并进行结构突变检验和动态因子模型分析，系统分析其动态时变特征。其次，构建DSGE模型来识别中国通胀持续性来源，具体考察外生持续性、内生持续性、以通胀预期为基础的持续性对中国通胀动态的影响。再次，进一步将货币政策区分为相机抉择和承诺规则类型，通过DSGE模型的系统分析来比较这两种类型货币政策下的通胀动态反应。最后，构建持续性与通胀目标制的DSGE模型并探讨中国渐进导入通胀目标制问题。 . 研究结果表明在中国现阶段的经济环境和经济体制下，限制性的相机抉择方式是比较好的货币政策决策方式。在我国，可以在渐进导入通货膨胀目标制的过程中逐步完善各项条件，以满足实施通货膨胀目标制的各种要求，从而降低通货膨胀持续性，进一步提高货币政策有效性。