大数据背景下动态多维贫困与留守儿童主观福祉：因果关系及影响机制

The urban-rural dual social system and continuous development of urbanization led to a large number of left-behind children, a special vulnerable group in mainland China. Taking targeted measures in poverty alleviation improves the social protection of left-behind children. However, challenges and barriers remain in some dimensions of child protection, such as health, participation, and subjective well-being constantly. How to make precise social policies to reduce poverty and enhance the well-being of left-behind children has become a major social issue. Most of the previous research mainly focused on the left-behind children’s mental problems and corresponding social protection systems, while ignoring the integrated effect of macro-social structure and meso-social support systems on their micro-individual well-being from the perspective of children’s subjectivity. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore the influencing mechanism of multidimensional poverty on subjective well-being by involving indicators embedded in macro, meso, and micro level. In the era of big data, this study aims to construct a dynamic multidimensional poverty index for left-behind children, and adopts it to empirically test the causal relationship between poverty and left-behind children's subjective well-being. What’s more, it will examine the mediating role of social support and moderating effect of coping strategies on the relationship between multidimensional poverty and left-behind children’s subjective well-being. This study can reveal the conditions of left-behind children in multidimensional poverty, social support and subjective well-being, and propose relevant policy implications for social protection system towards left-behind children.

城乡二元结构的固化和城镇化的持续推进使留守儿童沦为特殊弱势群体。依托精准扶贫战略，留守儿童的关爱保护行动取得阶段性成效，但他们在健康、参与、福祉等方面问题依然长期存在，如何科学决策以确保贫困留守儿童获得精准帮扶与福祉提升是一项长期复杂的重大社会问题。当前留守儿童的研究大多集中于关爱照顾体系建构与心理健康问题，却忽视了从儿童权利主体性视角分析宏观社会结构、中观社会支持系统对其微观福祉的影响。因此，从宏微观互动视角开展多维贫困与主观福祉研究具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。本课题通过创新性的引入大数据方法建构动态化的留守儿童多维贫困指标体系，并通过实证研究检验贫困与留守儿童主观福祉的因果关系，进而探究社会支持与应对策略共同作用下的留守儿童主观福祉的生成机理与路径机制，以揭示留守儿童在多维贫困、社会支持和主观福祉等方面存在的问题，并就此提出留守儿童关爱服务体系与救助保护机制的政策建议。

城乡二元结构的固化和城镇化的持续推进使留守儿童沦为特殊弱势群体，如何促进贫困留守儿童获得精准帮扶与福祉提升是一项长期复杂的重大社会问题。本项目通过建构整合型的理论分析框架，探究多维贫困对留守儿童主观福祉的影响机制及社会支持的中介效应和应对策略的调节效应，并分析减贫项目对贫困儿童心理发展的干预效果。本项目严格按照研究计划开展了文献研究、指标体系建构与问卷设计、实地调研、数据资料分析、论文撰写与发表等工作。.本项目基于多阶段整群随机抽样方法，在河北省石家庄市、江苏省淮安市、云南省昆明市和大理市共收集有效问卷4655份，收集留守儿童访谈资料67份。项目通过对文献资料和数据资料的分析发现：第一，多维贫困对留守儿童的主观福祉有显著性直接影响，多维贫困还会通过社会支持的中介效应间接的影响留守儿童的主观福祉，同时，应对策略在多维贫困对留守儿童主观福祉的直接影响上扮演调节效应。第二，减贫项目对贫困青少年儿童的心理发展有显著影响。项目参与人数、干预地点、干预频率对提升贫困青少年儿童的正向心理发展结果具有显著的影响，干预节次、服务传递者、结果报告方式对降低贫困青少年儿童的不良心理发展结果具有显著效果。.基于研究发现，本项目建构出“社会结构-外部支持-内在韧性”的儿童主观福祉提升理论模型，并倡导有针对性的开展贫困青少年儿童减贫干预项目，为国家、社会和家庭等多主体协作的儿童福祉提升机制和公共政策的完善提供科学依据。截止目前，共撰写项目相关论文7篇，已发表论文3篇，1篇论文修回待录用，另有3篇论文正在外审。