不确定性环境下考虑韧性提升的主动配电网运行方法

With the development of renewable energy generations and electric vehicles, there have been more uncertainties in distribution grids, and deterministic analysis methods and control measures cannot meet the operation demand of power grids. Moreover, in recent years, the extreme weather-caused outages have resulted in substantial economic losses, which further challenges the safe and reliable operation of power systems. In this project the operation of active distribution network (ADN) in uncertain environment considering resilience enhancement is studied. Firstly, the steady state model of ADN considering the uncertainties in generations, networks and loads is established. Secondly, the probabilistic load flow (PLF) calculation of ADN is studied based on an efficient Monte Carlo simulation technique. Besides, a non-parametric method is designed to evaluate the output variables of PLF in order to fully depict the state of distribution systems. Thirdly, based on the results of PLF, the operational risks of ADN are evaluated. Since there are large numbers of uncertainties, a method is proposed to identify the key uncertainties which significantly impact the risks. Moreover, a risk control method based on the multi-objective optimization is established. Finally, the Dynamic Microgrid (DM) is proposed to enhance the resilience of distribution system operation. The boundary division method and the update mechanism of the self-adaptive DM are studied. The self-healing operation strategy of ADN based on DMs is constructed. The research of this project will provide theoretical methods and analysis tools for the operation and control of ADN.

随着可再生能源发电，电动汽车的不断发展，配电网中的不确定性因素大大增加，确定性的分析方法和控制手段已不能满足配电网的运行需求。与此同时，近年来极端自然灾害造成的停电损失急剧增加，对电力系统的安全可靠运行进一步提出了挑战。本项目研究不确定性环境下考虑韧性提升的主动配电网运行方法。首先，建立考虑“源-网-荷”不确定性的主动配电网稳态模型；其次，研究基于高效蒙特卡罗模拟的主动配电网概率潮流算法，建立基于非参数估计的概率潮流输出变量评估方法，以全面分析系统状态；然后，基于概率潮流进行运行风险评估，研究影响运行风险的关键不确定性因素辨识方法，建立基于多目标优化的主动配电网运行风险控制方法；最后，提出面向配电网韧性提升的动态微网运行模式，研究自适应动态微网的边界划分方法及更新机制，构建基于动态微网的主动配电网自愈运行方法。本项目的研究，将为主动配电网的运行与控制提供有效的理论方法和分析工具。

分布式能源的迅速发展使得配电网中的不确定性因素显著增加，需要引入不确定性的分析方法和控制手段以保障配电网的安全可靠运行。本项目研究了不确定性环境下考虑韧性提升的主动配电网运行方法。首先考虑多重耦合的不确定性因素，建立了主动配电网内的“源-网-荷”不确定性因素模型，利用Copula函数刻画了输入随机变量之间的复杂相关性；其次，研究了基于高效蒙特卡罗模拟的主动配电网概率潮流算法，并在此基础上利用稀疏多项式混沌展开技术进一步提高概率潮流的计算效率；在概率潮流计算的基础上进行主动配电网的运行风险评估，应用基于Sobol'法的全局灵敏度分析指标辨识影响主动配电网运行风险的关键不确定性因素，建立基于多目标优化的主动配电网运行风险控制方法；最后，提出面向配电网韧性提升的动态微网运行模式，提高不确定性环境下主动配电网的韧性，保证系统的安全可靠运行。通过算例仿真和实际系统应用，验证了所提基于稀疏多项式混沌展开方法的概率潮流计算的高效性，准确辨识了影响主动配电网运行风险的关键不确定性因素，有效提高了主动配电网在不确定性环境下的韧性。