全周期全景梯级水电优化调度

Currently, the existing, constructing and planning installed capacity of cascade hydropower is reaching 80,000MW, while the climate and the power supply and demand situation is aggravated. The study of the optimal scheduling of the cascade hydropower station, within the bigger range of time and space scope and under various kinds of stochastic constraints, is urgently needed in order to fully utilized the hydraulic resources, improve the safety and economy of the power system operation, and promote the energy saving and emission reduction effect. The project puts forward the optimal scheduling mode for the cascade hydropower for multiple scenarios and time periods, which will adopt the scenarios method to descript the stochastic factors such as the inflow uncertainty, the load, and the power generation capacity of other generators to systematically construct the meticulous optimization scheduling model with the time dimension ranging from long termto short term. The aspects that will be mainly studied are as follows:.(1).long-term (spanning the whole year) cascade hydropower optimal scheduling considering the pre-control of the water level for multiple scenarios is modeled;.(2).the combined mid- long term (spanning the whole year and annually) cascade hydropower optimal scheduling and the maintenance scheduling for multiple scenarios is modeled ;.(3).short-term (day-long) cascade hydropower optimal scheduling model considering the optimization of delay time is established;.(4).the transformation of the non-linear models above all are transformed into the MILP models;.(5).the corresponding simulation system is designed and realized to prove the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed theory and method..The research results will provide relative theory and methods for improving the large scale cascade hydropower optimization scheduling levels.

我国目前已运、在建和规划的流域梯级水电装机容量近8000万千瓦，同时气候和电力供需形势的变化在加剧，迫切需要开展更大时空范围、计及多种不确定性约束的流域梯级水电站群优化调度理论研究，以充分利用水力资源、提高电力系统安全经济运行水平和促进节能减排。本项目致力于研究和提出全周期全景梯级水电优化调度理论和方法；将采用场景法描述来水、负荷和其他电源发电能力等不确定性因素的影响，系统地建立从长期至短期沿时间维度精细化的优化模型，重点研究：（1）考虑年末预留水位优化的全景长期（跨年）梯级水电调度模型；（2）考虑与机组检修计划联合优化的全景中长期（跨年和年内）梯级水电优化调度模型；（3）考虑水流滞时优化的短期（日）梯级水电优化调度模型；（4）将上述非线性模型转化为混合整数规划模型；（5）设计和实现仿真系统，验证所提理论和方法的正确性和有效性。研究成果将为提高流域梯级水电优化调度水平和效益提供理论和方法。

无论在计划调度还是市场机制下，要实现水电资源的优化配置，都要针对流域梯级水电进行全周期、全场景优化调度模型和方法的研究。本项目围绕该问题开展研究并取得如下成果：.1）调研和理清了计划调度模式下大规模流域梯级水电优化调度的合理周期（跨年度、年度、月度、日前和实时等）及各周期优化调度的协调关系；针对我国进入新一轮电改的新形势，分析了市场机制下大规模流域梯级水电优化调度的合理周期及各周期优化调度的协调关系。.2）系统地分析了大规模流域梯级水电优化调度的约束条件，分别针对跨年、年度、日前等时间尺度，建立了流域梯级水电优化调度模型，提出了相应模型的求解方法，具体包括：考虑年末预留水位的全景梯级水电跨年随机调度策略及模型、市场环境下基于奔德斯分解的年末水位优化策略及模型、流域梯级水电站中长期调度计划与跨区域交易组合双层优化模型、考虑径流随机性的梯级水电站中长期收益风险管理模型、考虑水流滞时的梯级水电日优化调度模型、考虑日前调峰分配和流量波动平抑的梯级水电双层优化调度模型、考虑消费价格敏感和可中断负荷模式的联合发电调度模型、考虑大规模风电接入含储能水火系统的优化调度方法、基于大系统分解协调和多核集群并行计算的流域梯级水电中长期调度优化方法、风水火系统长期优化调度方法等。.3）在市场机制下流域梯级水电优化调度的周期及各周期优化调度协调关系研究的基础上，结合云南省电力市场开展年度和月度交易所出现的实际问题，创新性地提出以日为周期的日前电量交易机制以及偏差电量预招标机制，并被政府采纳、付诸实践，提高了水电参加市场交易的履约率、促进了水电资源优化配置；在我国当前电力体制机制下，偏差电量预招标机制有效地解决了各周期电力交易／调度和结算等协调问题，已经写入国家发改委和国家能源局近期颁布的《电力中长期交易基本规则》，在全国范围内推广应用。