京津冀水资源短缺演变规律及驱动机制

Water scarcity has become the frontier and hotspot for hydrological science in the context of global change. Method improvement and quantification are the main focus of the water scarcity evaluation. However, most studies evaluate the water quantity stress, while less attention has been paid to the evluation of the water quality-induced water scarcity. Meanwhile, the driving forces of water scarcity have been mainly studied with qualitative analysis. Seldom quantitative analyses have been carried out for the study of the driving forces that change the water scaricty. Given the national and regional water security, this study selects the Jing-Jin-Ji area that has suffered from great human interference as a case study. Both ecosystem process model and multi-region input-output model will be used to study the water footprint in the Jing-Jin-Ji area. The historical trend, spacial distribution, and the sector disaggregation of the water footprint will be analyzed. The water scarcity index will be constructed to quantitatively indicate both water quantity- and water quality-induced water scarcity under human interference. Both temporal and spatial characteristics of the water scarcity in the Jing-Jin-Ji area will be analyzed using such index. Finally, using structural decomposition analysis, we will quantify the driving forces of the changes in water scarcity. This study will provide the key scientific support to ensure the water security in the Jing-Jin-Ji area.

水资源短缺评价已经成为全球变化背景下水文科学研究的前沿和热点。目前水资源短缺研究主要集中在方法完善和定量核算两个方面。但是大多数评价以水量性缺水为主，对水质性缺水缺乏深入的研究。同时，水资源短缺驱动机制研究以定性分析为主，缺乏定量分析方法。本研究面向国家和区域水安全重大需求，选择人类干扰强烈且水资源问题极为突出的京津冀地区，基于生态系统过程模型和多区域投入产出分析，揭示京津冀水足迹和污染物排放的时空演变趋势及产业分布特征；构建水资源短缺评价模型和方法，定量表征人类活动引起的水量性及水质性缺水，分析京津冀水量性和水质性水资源短缺的时空分布格局，阐明水资源短缺演变趋势、分布规律和驱动机制。本研究对于保障京津冀水资源安全具有重大的理论及现实意义。

水资源短缺评价已经成为全球变化背景下水文科学研究的前沿和热点。本研究面向国家和区域水安全重大需求，选择人类干扰强烈且水资源问题极为突出的京津冀地区，基于生态系统过程模型和多区域投入产出分析，构建了综合考虑水量水质的产业部门间的水足迹综合评价模型，分别从生产和消费角度分析水足迹产业分布特征与区域虚拟水贸易，揭示了津冀水足迹时空演变趋势及产业分布特征；基于水足迹理念，自主研发了综合考虑水量水质的水资源短缺评价方法，定量表征人类活动引起的水量性及水质性缺水，并分析了京津冀水量性和水质性水资源短缺的时空分布格局与历史演变趋势；利用结构分解分析技术探明了最终消费、产业结构和技术进步等因素对水足迹变化的驱动机制。研究发现：京津冀地区75%的消费水足迹依赖于进口，是虚拟水进口依赖度极强的地区；农林牧渔业和食品制造及烟草加工业是对水足迹贡献最大的两个部门；京津冀地区存在严重的水量性和水质性水短缺问题，且空间分布格局不均衡；直接耗水强度效应是驱动水足迹演变的最关键因子；未来在继续降低不同产业部门直接耗水强度的同时，需要重点关注以水定产，优化产业结构，促进水-社会-经济可持续性发展。本项目研究成果可为京津冀地区未来水资源配置以及京津冀协同发展提供理论依据和数据支持，对于保障京津冀水资源安全具有重大的理论及现实意义。