青藏高原地-气耦合过程对区域灾害天气的影响

In this project, using the multi-source data from operational observation, scientific experiment, reanalysis, satellite and radar, especially the related latest data, a integration research on the characteristic, mechanism and prediction of influences of the Tibetan Plateau land-air coupled process on severe weather in China is conducted by the observational analysis, physical diagnosis, theoretical research and comprehensive comparison. On the basis of prior research achievements, from the view of multi-scale interaction and cooperating effect, it is mainly studied that the variation characteristic of spatial-temporal structure of the heat source in the Tibetan Plateau land-air coupled process and its influences on severe weather, the formation mechanism of multi-scale circulation systems in the Tibetan Plateau land-air coupled process and its influences on severe weather. Accordingly, it is deep understood the three-dimensional structure of the heat source，water cycle and the varying mechanisms of different circulation systems in the Tibetan Plateau land-air coupled process, it is widely recognized the changing Tibetan Plateau land-air coupled system and its important relations with severe weather such as the torrential rain. And it is found the varying information and predicting signal of severe weather in the key areas of the heat source and circulation systems in the Tibetan Plateau, it is built the systematic-whole both physical image and conceptual model of the influences of the Tibetan Plateau land-air coupled process on severe weather, and it is proposed the diagnostic analysis method and the numerical forecasting technology being suited to the Plateau and mountains. The project will develop both the scientific theory and key technology for the severe weather forecast under the Tibetan Plateau influences, thereby further promoting the forecasting skills of disaster weather-climate in China.

应用观测、试验、再分析、卫星和雷达等多源资料，通过观测分析、诊断研究、数值模拟、理论研究和综合深化等方法，开展青藏高原地-气耦合过程影响我国灾害天气的特征、机理及其预测集成研究。在已有成果基础上，从多尺度相互作用与协同影响视角，研究高原地-气耦合过程大气热源结构时空变化特征及其对灾害天气的影响、高原地-气耦合过程多尺度环流系统形成机制及其对灾害天气的影响,由此深刻理解高原地-气耦合过程大气热源、水分循环三维结构与不同尺度环流系统的演变机理，广泛认识高原地-气耦合过程变化及其对暴雨等灾害天气的重要影响，提取高原热源、天气系统关键区影响灾害天气的变化信息与预测信号，建立高原地-气耦合过程影响灾害天气的系统、完整物理图像与概念模型，提出反映高原山地特色的诊断分析方法，改进区域数值天气预报模式的业务能力，发展青藏高原影响下的灾害天气预报科学理论与关键技术，提升我国灾害天气气候预报预测水平。

在“青藏高原地-气耦合系统变化及其全球气候效应”重大研究计划下，根据已有的研究成果，从多尺度相互作用与协同影响视角，进一步开展了青藏高原地-气耦合过程对区域灾害天气影响的集成研究。. 应用业务观测、科学试验、再分析、卫星雷达等多源资料，通过观测分析、物理诊断、数值模拟和理论分析等方法，深入系统地研究了青藏高原地-气耦合过程影响我国降水等灾害天气特征、过程和机理及其预测科学问题，重点集中在高原地-气耦合过程大气热源结构与变化特征及其灾害天气影响、高原地-气耦合过程多尺度环流系统相互作用及其灾害天气影响、高原山地区域特色的天气分析诊断方法与预报技术三个方面，取得了新的成果。由此揭示了青藏高原地-气耦合过程不同区域（包括复杂地形）热源时空分布、异常变化和天气效应，多尺度不同环流系统演变特征、相互联系和天气作用；建立了高原关键区热源、多尺度环流系统造成中国广大地区降水等灾害天气的影响机制与物理图像；提出了先进、高效的适合高原山地复杂地形的诊断分析预报技术。尤其是首次揭示了天气尺度上青藏高原大气热源与中国夏季区域降水的密切关系和影响机制；指出了青藏高原加热、复杂地形与地表辐射分别与高原涡的发生、发展相联系，揭示了高原涡的异常移动、环流特征、形成机制及其降水影响；首次研究了西南涡形成、发展、移动和消亡全过程的演变特征和物理机制，科学解释了西南涡的形成位置、不同演变和主要成因；提出了基于青藏高原复杂地形与区域环流、低涡系统相互作用的特殊局地地形暴雨山洪灾害的触发机制和物理模型；研发了5种精确度高、有效性好、适用性广的复杂下垫面大气诊断分析和预报新技术。并且，获得了关于高原热源、低涡系统和灾害天气等一些关键数据。以上这些系列成果具有重要的科学意义和显著的应用价值。